{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026071608",
  "record_slug": "ukraine-russia-peace-deal-before-2027-polymarket-20-2026-07-16",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-07-16T01:58:45.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Ukraine peace deal consensus stays below quarter odds",
  "telemetry": "Polymarket 20%",
  "headline": "Ukraine-Russia peace deal before 2027: Polymarket 20%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-07-21",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-DCQYWYX424",
  "target_event_slug": "ukraine-signs-peace-deal-with-russia-before-2027",
  "event_question": "Will Ukraine sign a peace deal with Russia before 2027?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "polymarket",
    "platform_market_id": "0x4167e22670f31e5f93d132f78108f3fae809bd15cadf78983eff096845ed1415",
    "question_raw": "Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?",
    "current_price": 0.2,
    "volume_24h_usd": 10145.761634,
    "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
    "resolves_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Polymarket prices 20% on Ukraine signing a peace deal with Russia before 2027, with active Russian missile strikes on Kyiv ongoing.",
    "The Ukraine-EU drone deal and Russian retaliation signal a continued war footing on both sides, consistent with prediction markets holding well below even odds.",
    "A companion Polymarket contract on the US recognizing Russian sovereignty over Crimea before 2027 sits at 12%, suggesting markets see the political preconditions for a deal as similarly distant.",
    "Polymarket resolves via UMA oracle; a signed peace deal requires formal treaty execution, not merely ceasefire announcements, raising the resolution bar considerably."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Al Jazeera Staff",
          "source_url": "https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/7/16/kyiv-under-fire-from-russian-missiles-after-eu-ukraine-sign-drone-deal",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-07-16T10:04:17+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market"
      },
      "story": "Russia launched major missile strikes on Kyiv and other Ukrainian cities following a Ukraine-EU drone deal, killing at least two people in Kyiv.",
      "publisher": "Al Jazeera Staff",
      "published_at": "2026-07-16T01:58:45.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/7/16/kyiv-under-fire-from-russian-missiles-after-eu-ukraine-sign-drone-deal"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Polymarket's 20% peace deal price and 12% Crimea-recognition price are directionally consistent, both reflecting low but non-trivial probability of a negotiated end to the conflict before 2027."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Al Jazeera Staff: Two killed in Russian missile attacks on Kyiv after Ukraine-EU drone d",
      "url": "https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/7/16/kyiv-under-fire-from-russian-missiles-after-eu-ukraine-sign-drone-deal",
      "published_at": "2026-07-16T01:58:45.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-07-16T10:04:17+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/ukraine-russia-peace-deal-before-2027-polymarket-20-2026-07-16/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/ukraine-russia-peace-deal-before-2027-polymarket-20-2026-07-16.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}