{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026070906",
  "record_slug": "ukraine-russia-peace-deal-before-2027-polymarket-21-2026-07-09",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-07-09T09:58:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Ukraine-Russia peace deal by 2027 priced as long shot",
  "telemetry": "Polymarket 21%",
  "headline": "Ukraine-Russia peace deal before 2027: Polymarket 21%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-DCQYWYX424",
  "target_event_slug": "ukraine-signs-peace-deal-with-russia-before-2027",
  "event_question": "Will Ukraine sign a peace deal with Russia before 2027?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "polymarket",
    "platform_market_id": "0x4167e22670f31e5f93d132f78108f3fae809bd15cadf78983eff096845ed1415",
    "question_raw": "Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?",
    "current_price": 0.21,
    "volume_24h_usd": 980.785769,
    "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
    "resolves_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "The Polymarket contract prices 21% on Ukraine signing a peace deal with Russia before 2027, resolving via UMA oracle.",
    "Reuters sourcing on likely Russian escalation is broadly consistent with the market's 79% implied probability that no deal materializes before year-end.",
    "Two correlated Polymarket contracts price even lower: Ukraine agreeing to cede the rest of Donbas at 5%, and a peace referendum passing at 10%, suggesting markets see territorial concessions as the binding constraint.",
    "Resolution via UMA oracle requires a verifiable signed peace agreement; ongoing Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian oil infrastructure further reduce near-term deal probability."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "thestar.com.my",
          "source_url": "https://www.thestar.com.my/news/world/2026/07/09/exclusive-putin-likely-to-escalate-ukraine-war-despite-trump-peace-push-sources-say",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-07-10T10:49:37+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market"
      },
      "story": "Sources tell Reuters that President Vladimir Putin is likely to escalate the war in Ukraine despite Trump administration peace efforts.",
      "publisher": "thestar.com.my",
      "published_at": "2026-07-09T09:58:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.thestar.com.my/news/world/2026/07/09/exclusive-putin-likely-to-escalate-ukraine-war-despite-trump-peace-push-sources-say"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Polymarket contract resolves via UMA oracle; the 21% price sits in rough alignment with the escalation reporting, with companion contracts on territorial concessions pricing far lower."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "thestar.com.my: Exclusive-Putin likely to escalate Ukraine war, despite Trump peace pu",
      "url": "https://www.thestar.com.my/news/world/2026/07/09/exclusive-putin-likely-to-escalate-ukraine-war-despite-trump-peace-push-sources-say",
      "published_at": "2026-07-09T09:58:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-07-10T10:49:37+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/ukraine-russia-peace-deal-before-2027-polymarket-21-2026-07-09/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/ukraine-russia-peace-deal-before-2027-polymarket-21-2026-07-09.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}