{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026072308",
  "record_slug": "ukraine-russia-peace-deal-before-2027-polymarket-23-2026-07-23",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-07-23T05:32:01.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Ukraine peace deal before 2027 stays under 25%",
  "telemetry": "Polymarket 23%",
  "headline": "Ukraine-Russia peace deal before 2027: Polymarket 23%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-07-28",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-DCQYWYX424",
  "target_event_slug": "ukraine-signs-peace-deal-with-russia-before-2027",
  "event_question": "Will Ukraine sign a peace deal with Russia before 2027?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "polymarket",
    "platform_market_id": "0x4167e22670f31e5f93d132f78108f3fae809bd15cadf78983eff096845ed1415",
    "question_raw": "Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?",
    "current_price": 0.23,
    "volume_24h_usd": 12674.418237999998,
    "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
    "resolves_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Polymarket prices 23% probability of Ukraine signing a peace deal with Russia before 2027, keeping the outcome firmly in long-shot territory.",
    "Zelensky's claim of Kremlin inner-circle dysfunction is a diplomatic narrative, but the market assigns it little weight, the probability remains below 25%.",
    "The companion Polymarket contract on Putin leaving office by December 31 sits at 9%, suggesting markets do not read the isolation claims as an imminent power shift.",
    "Resolves via UMA oracle; a formally signed peace agreement, not a ceasefire or framework, is the presumed settlement bar."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "the-independent.com",
          "source_url": "https://www.the-independent.com/news/world/europe/ukraine-russia-war-live-putin-zelensky-drone-raids-wildberries-b3019965.html",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-07-23T10:16:46+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market"
      },
      "story": "Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky claimed that aides to Vladimir Putin signaled the Russian president is isolated in his inner circle, describing a toxic atmosphere around the Kremlin leader.",
      "publisher": "the-independent.com",
      "published_at": "2026-07-23T05:32:01.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.the-independent.com/news/world/europe/ukraine-russia-war-live-putin-zelensky-drone-raids-wildberries-b3019965.html"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Polymarket's 23% on a peace deal and 9% on Putin departure together suggest markets are pricing diplomatic noise, not structural change, from the Zelensky claims."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "the-independent.com: Ukraine war live: Zelensky claims ‘toxic’ atmosphere in Putin’s inner",
      "url": "https://www.the-independent.com/news/world/europe/ukraine-russia-war-live-putin-zelensky-drone-raids-wildberries-b3019965.html",
      "published_at": "2026-07-23T05:32:01.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-07-23T10:16:46+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/ukraine-russia-peace-deal-before-2027-polymarket-23-2026-07-23/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/ukraine-russia-peace-deal-before-2027-polymarket-23-2026-07-23.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}