{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026090806",
  "record_slug": "ukraine-russia-peace-deal-by-2026-polymarket-12-2026-09-08",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-09-08T00:00:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Ukraine peace deal before 2027 remains a long shot",
  "telemetry": "Polymarket 12%",
  "headline": "Ukraine-Russia peace deal by 2026: Polymarket 12%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-09-08",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-DCQYWYX424",
  "target_event_slug": "ukraine-signs-peace-deal-with-russia-before-2027",
  "event_question": "Will Ukraine sign a peace deal with Russia before 2027?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "polymarket",
    "platform_market_id": "0x4167e22670f31e5f93d132f78108f3fae809bd15cadf78983eff096845ed1415",
    "question_raw": "Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?",
    "current_price": 0.12,
    "volume_24h_usd": 5847.683777,
    "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
    "resolves_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "The Polymarket contract on Ukraine signing a peace deal with Russia before 2027 sits at 12%.",
    "US envoys flagged diplomatic movement, yet markets price only a 12% chance of a formal deal, showing strong skepticism toward the diplomatic signals.",
    "Russia's missile strike on Kyiv immediately after envoys left is consistent with the market's low probability on a near-term agreement.",
    "A separate Polymarket contract on a Russia-Ukraine peace agreement by 2026 (CM-EVT-66S3LD3901) prices at 8%, suggesting the market sees even a loose accord as unlikely this calendar year."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "channelnewsasia.com",
          "source_url": "https://www.channelnewsasia.com/world/us-envoy-sees-movement-toward-three-way-talks-russia-ukraine-6368071",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-09-08T12:33:52+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market"
      },
      "story": "US envoy Steve Witkoff reported movement toward three-way talks between the US, Russia, and Ukraine, but Russia struck Kyiv with missiles shortly after envoys departed.",
      "publisher": "channelnewsasia.com",
      "published_at": "2026-09-08T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.channelnewsasia.com/world/us-envoy-sees-movement-toward-three-way-talks-russia-ukraine-6368071"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Polymarket contract resolves via UMA oracle; the gap between envoy optimism and the 12% contract price is the key market-versus-news divergence here."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "channelnewsasia.com: US envoy sees 'movement' toward three-way talks with Russia, Ukraine -",
      "url": "https://www.channelnewsasia.com/world/us-envoy-sees-movement-toward-three-way-talks-russia-ukraine-6368071",
      "published_at": "2026-09-08T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-09-08T12:33:52+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/ukraine-russia-peace-deal-by-2026-polymarket-12-2026-09-08/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/ukraine-russia-peace-deal-by-2026-polymarket-12-2026-09-08.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}