{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026100306",
  "record_slug": "ukraine-russia-peace-deal-by-2027-polymarket-9-2026-10-03",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-10-03T00:00:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Ukraine-Russia peace deal before 2027 remains a long shot",
  "telemetry": "Polymarket 9%",
  "headline": "Ukraine-Russia peace deal by 2027: Polymarket 9%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-10-03",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-DCQYWYX424",
  "target_event_slug": "ukraine-signs-peace-deal-with-russia-before-2027",
  "event_question": "Will Ukraine sign a peace deal with Russia before 2027?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "polymarket",
    "platform_market_id": "0x4167e22670f31e5f93d132f78108f3fae809bd15cadf78983eff096845ed1415",
    "question_raw": "Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?",
    "current_price": 0.09,
    "volume_24h_usd": 382.179011,
    "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
    "resolves_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Polymarket prices a 9% chance Ukraine signs a peace deal with Russia before 2027.",
    "The oil-deal expansion of talks introduces commercial interests that the market appears to view as a complication, not a catalyst, given the low probability.",
    "A companion Polymarket contract on Ukraine ceding territory to Russia by 2026 sits at 6%, and Zelenskyy leaving office by year-end at 5%, a coherent low-probability cluster.",
    "Resolution via UMA oracle; a signed, formal peace agreement between Ukraine and Russia is required, not a ceasefire or partial accord."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "New York Times",
          "source_url": "https://dnyuz.com/2026/10/03/u-s-russia-talks-on-ukraine-now-involve-an-oil-deal-tied-to-trump-allies/",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-10-03T12:59:34+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market"
      },
      "story": "U.S.-Russia talks on Ukraine have expanded to include a multibillion-dollar oil deal benefiting allies of both sides, complicating the peace framework.",
      "publisher": "New York Times",
      "published_at": "2026-10-03T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://dnyuz.com/2026/10/03/u-s-russia-talks-on-ukraine-now-involve-an-oil-deal-tied-to-trump-allies/"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Three Polymarket contracts on Ukraine peace outcomes all cluster in the 5-9% range, showing consistent cross-contract skepticism."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "New York Times: U.S.-Russia Talks on Ukraine Now Involve an Oil Deal Tied to Trump All",
      "url": "https://dnyuz.com/2026/10/03/u-s-russia-talks-on-ukraine-now-involve-an-oil-deal-tied-to-trump-allies/",
      "published_at": "2026-10-03T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-10-03T12:59:34+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/ukraine-russia-peace-deal-by-2027-polymarket-9-2026-10-03/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/ukraine-russia-peace-deal-by-2027-polymarket-9-2026-10-03.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}