{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026102805",
  "record_slug": "un-security-council-us-iran-deal-by-dec-polymarket-9-2026-10-28",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-10-28T00:00:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "UN Security Council endorsing a US-Iran deal stays a long shot",
  "telemetry": "Polymarket 9%",
  "headline": "UN Security Council US-Iran deal by Dec: Polymarket 9%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-10-28",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-1B57MJ14Q5",
  "target_event_slug": "will-the-unsc-adopt-a-resolution-endorsing-the-final-us-iran-deal-by-date",
  "event_question": "Will the UN Security Council pass a resolution endorsing a final U.S.-Iran deal by December 31?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "polymarket",
    "platform_market_id": "0x0c7245047183848e41555dc9a5ccc14c970a0711a3591bebc8310119cbae64c0",
    "question_raw": "UNSC Resolution Endorsing Final U.S.-Iran Deal by December 31?",
    "current_price": 0.09,
    "volume_24h_usd": 1.12,
    "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
    "resolves_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Polymarket places 9% on the UN Security Council passing a resolution endorsing a final US-Iran deal by December, resolving via uma_oracle.",
    "Iran's rejection of the Qatari proposal as unacceptable is consistent with the Polymarket contract's deep discount; the market is not pricing a diplomatic breakthrough.",
    "Houthi attacks on Saudi oil facilities add a further military escalation layer that the 9% pricing appears to incorporate as a complicating factor.",
    "The Polymarket contract on Hormuz returning to normal by year-end at 12% (CM-EVT-LCPV825X09) trades slightly above the UN deal contract, implying the market sees a partial reopening as marginally more likely than a full formal settlement."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Reuters, ynet Global",
          "source_url": "https://www.ynetnews.com/article/bkbihrjazl",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-10-28T14:49:33+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market"
      },
      "story": "Iran rejected Qatar's seven-day peace plan as unacceptable, refusing to compromise on nuclear talks as Houthi attacks on Saudi facilities escalate.",
      "publisher": "Reuters, ynet Global",
      "published_at": "2026-10-28T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.ynetnews.com/article/bkbihrjazl"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Polymarket at 9% on a UN-endorsed US-Iran deal reflects Iran's public rejection of Qatar's draft proposal and the absence of any agreed negotiating framework."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Reuters, ynet Global: Report: Qatar presents Iran new 7-day peace plan to end war with US an",
      "url": "https://www.ynetnews.com/article/bkbihrjazl",
      "published_at": "2026-10-28T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-10-28T14:49:33+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/un-security-council-us-iran-deal-by-dec-polymarket-9-2026-10-28/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/un-security-council-us-iran-deal-by-dec-polymarket-9-2026-10-28.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}