{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026060503",
  "record_slug": "unemployment-peak-above-5-before-2027-kalshi-24-2026-06-05",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-06-05T14:01:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Unemployment spike above 5 percent remains a long shot",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi ladder",
  "headline": "Unemployment peak above 5% before 2027: Kalshi 24%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-RBY62SKLC0",
  "target_event_slug": "kxu3max-27",
  "event_question": "Peak U.S. unemployment rate before 2027",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXU3MAX-27-5",
    "question_raw": "How high will unemployment get before 2027?",
    "current_price": 0.242,
    "volume_24h_usd": 142.95,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
    "resolves_at": "2027-01-08T15:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi prices only 24% on unemployment exceeding 5% before 2027; above 6% collapses to 8%.",
    "The strong May print is consistent with the low-tail pricing, markets see a spike above 6-7% as a remote scenario at 7-8%.",
    "Tech layoff and white-collar layoff markets (CM-EVT-ZTGN9MPFL9 at 89%, CM-EVT-0QDTY1D1Y1 at 72%) suggest sectoral stress that has not yet moved the aggregate unemployment needle.",
    "Resolves via FRED/BLS unemployment data; contract covers any monthly reading above each threshold reported before January 2027."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "pbs.org",
          "source_url": "https://www.pbs.org/newshour/economy/172000-jobs-added-in-may-showing-market-resilience-despite-iran-war",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-06-08T12:25:51+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "172,000 jobs added in May showing labor market resilience even as the Iran war weighs on sentiment.",
      "publisher": "pbs.org",
      "published_at": "2026-06-05T14:01:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.pbs.org/newshour/economy/172000-jobs-added-in-may-showing-market-resilience-despite-iran-war"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi ladder resolves via fred.stlouisfed.org; the wide gap between 24% at 5% and 8% at 6% reflects the current strong-labor-market baseline."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "pbs.org: 172,000 jobs added in May, showing market resilience despite Iran war",
      "url": "https://www.pbs.org/newshour/economy/172000-jobs-added-in-may-showing-market-resilience-despite-iran-war",
      "published_at": "2026-06-05T14:01:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-06-08T12:25:51+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/unemployment-peak-above-5-before-2027-kalshi-24-2026-06-05/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/unemployment-peak-above-5-before-2027-kalshi-24-2026-06-05.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}