{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026060503",
  "record_slug": "unemployment-peak-before-2027-kalshi-implies-below-5-2026-06-05",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-06-05T18:52:56.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Peak unemployment below 5 percent holds firm in pricing",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi ladder",
  "headline": "Unemployment peak before 2027: Kalshi implies below 5%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-RBY62SKLC0",
  "target_event_slug": "kxu3max-27",
  "event_question": "Peak U.S. unemployment rate before 2027",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXU3MAX-27-5",
    "question_raw": "How high will unemployment get before 2027?",
    "current_price": 0.242,
    "volume_24h_usd": 142.95,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
    "resolves_at": "2027-01-08T15:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi ladder implies peak unemployment stays below 5% before 2027; only 24% chance it hits 5% or above.",
    "May's strong payrolls are consistent with a market that sees no near-term unemployment spike.",
    "Above 6%, probabilities collapse to single digits, suggesting the market treats a severe labor deterioration as a tail event.",
    "Resolves via Bureau of Labor Statistics unemployment data; highest monthly print before January 2027 determines outcome."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "pbs.org",
          "source_url": "https://www.pbs.org/newshour/economy/u-s-job-market-is-strong-but-many-americans-still-frustrated-by-prospects-and-rising-prices",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-06-07T10:26:16+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "Despite 172,000 jobs added in May and a resilient labor market, many Americans remain frustrated by rising prices and limited wage gains.",
      "publisher": "pbs.org",
      "published_at": "2026-06-05T18:52:56.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.pbs.org/newshour/economy/u-s-job-market-is-strong-but-many-americans-still-frustrated-by-prospects-and-rising-prices"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi's distribution keeps peak unemployment pricing firmly below 5%, in line with consecutive months of above-forecast payroll gains."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "pbs.org: U.S. job market is strong, but many Americans still frustrated by pros",
      "url": "https://www.pbs.org/newshour/economy/u-s-job-market-is-strong-but-many-americans-still-frustrated-by-prospects-and-rising-prices",
      "published_at": "2026-06-05T18:52:56.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-06-07T10:26:16+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/unemployment-peak-before-2027-kalshi-implies-below-5-2026-06-05/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/unemployment-peak-before-2027-kalshi-implies-below-5-2026-06-05.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}