{
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  "record_id": "CMSIG2026100205",
  "record_slug": "us-ai-safety-bill-by-2027-polymarket-5-2026-10-02",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-10-02T00:00:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "US AI safety bill before 2027 stays a long shot",
  "telemetry": "Polymarket 5%",
  "headline": "US AI safety bill by 2027: Polymarket 5%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-10-02",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-WMMFP7Y6G5",
  "target_event_slug": "us-enacts-ai-safety-bill-before-2027",
  "event_question": "Will the U.S. enact an AI safety bill before 2027?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "polymarket",
    "platform_market_id": "0xcdbf64cb434d132ae3eba2c6d4aa8123dde9f90bd8641a5cd31ceddee6d935b8",
    "question_raw": "U.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027?",
    "current_price": 0.05,
    "volume_24h_usd": 1739.61,
    "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
    "resolves_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "The Polymarket contract on the U.S. enacting an AI safety bill before 2027 prices at just 5%, placing it firmly in long-shot territory.",
    "Hawley's hearing generated legislative momentum in principle, but the Polymarket contract's 5% indicates the market is not treating the hearing as a meaningful step toward passage.",
    "A companion Polymarket contract on AI being charged with a crime before 2027 sits at 8%, similarly low, the market broadly discounts near-term AI legal or regulatory action.",
    "Resolves via UMA oracle; the bill would need to pass both chambers and be signed before year-end 2026, a very compressed timeline given the current 5% pricing."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "John Hendel",
          "source_url": "https://www.politico.com/news/2026/10/02/hawley-tests-trumps-hands-off-approach-to-ai-01104288",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-10-02T14:25:25+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market"
      },
      "story": "Senator Josh Hawley held a September hearing on rogue AI agents and is pushing for AI legislation, even as prospects for any bill passing dim.",
      "publisher": "John Hendel",
      "published_at": "2026-10-02T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.politico.com/news/2026/10/02/hawley-tests-trumps-hands-off-approach-to-ai-01104288"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Polymarket prices the AI safety bill at 5%, unchanged from pre-hearing levels, indicating the market is not pricing Hawley's push as a credible near-term legislative catalyst."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "John Hendel: Hawley tests Trump’s hands-off approach to AI - POLITICO",
      "url": "https://www.politico.com/news/2026/10/02/hawley-tests-trumps-hands-off-approach-to-ai-01104288",
      "published_at": "2026-10-02T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-10-02T14:25:25+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/us-ai-safety-bill-by-2027-polymarket-5-2026-10-02/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/us-ai-safety-bill-by-2027-polymarket-5-2026-10-02.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
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}