{
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  "record_id": "CMSIG2026110604",
  "record_slug": "us-ai-safety-bill-by-2027-polymarket-8-2026-11-06",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-11-06T10:00:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "US AI safety bill before 2027 stays a long shot",
  "telemetry": "Polymarket 8%",
  "headline": "US AI safety bill by 2027: Polymarket 8%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-11-10",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-WMMFP7Y6G5",
  "target_event_slug": "us-enacts-ai-safety-bill-before-2027",
  "event_question": "Will the U.S. enact an AI safety bill before 2027?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "polymarket",
    "platform_market_id": "0xcdbf64cb434d132ae3eba2c6d4aa8123dde9f90bd8641a5cd31ceddee6d935b8",
    "question_raw": "U.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027?",
    "current_price": 0.08,
    "volume_24h_usd": 52.85,
    "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
    "resolves_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "The Polymarket contract prices only an 8% chance the US enacts an AI safety bill before 2027.",
    "Despite AI safety advocates claiming a political win in the midterms, the market is not pricing a near-term legislative breakthrough.",
    "Democrats winning Congress changes the composition but not the short-term timeline; the 8% pricing implies the market sees 2026 legislation as very unlikely.",
    "Resolution via UMA oracle; the question resolves on enactment before January 1, 2027, leaving very little calendar runway."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Calder McHugh, Alec Hernandez",
          "source_url": "https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2026/11/06/ai-big-tech-2026-midterms-anthropic-openai-01152312",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-11-09T07:47:40+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market"
      },
      "story": "Politico reports that AI safety advocates, populists, and child-safety groups united in the 2026 midterms, handing Democrats a potential 2028 legislative issue.",
      "publisher": "Calder McHugh, Alec Hernandez",
      "published_at": "2026-11-06T10:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2026/11/06/ai-big-tech-2026-midterms-anthropic-openai-01152312"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Polymarket contract via UMA oracle; the market is fading the narrative that a midterm shift translates into immediate AI legislation."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Calder McHugh, Alec Hernandez: The AI Doomers Won 2026",
      "url": "https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2026/11/06/ai-big-tech-2026-midterms-anthropic-openai-01152312",
      "published_at": "2026-11-06T10:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-11-09T07:47:40+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/us-ai-safety-bill-by-2027-polymarket-8-2026-11-06/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/us-ai-safety-bill-by-2027-polymarket-8-2026-11-06.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}