{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026081905",
  "record_slug": "us-aug-unemployment-rate-seen-4-1-4-2-kalshi-ladder-2026-08-19",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-08-19T00:00:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Unemployment rate in August prices in near 4.1 to 4.2 percent",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi ladder",
  "headline": "US Aug unemployment rate seen 4.1-4.2%: Kalshi ladder",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "resolved",
    "as_of": "2026-09-05",
    "outcome": "NO",
    "outcome_basis": "resolution_log",
    "final_price": 0,
    "resolved_at": "2026-09-04"
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-CN1M891289",
  "target_event_slug": "kxu3-26aug",
  "event_question": "US unemployment rate (U-3), August 2026",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXU3-26AUG-T4.2",
    "question_raw": "Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 4.2% in August?",
    "current_price": 0.31,
    "volume_24h_usd": 2258.84,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
    "resolves_at": "2026-12-04T14:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi ladder implies August unemployment near 4.1%-4.2%, with 55% above 4.1% but only 31% above 4.2%, a narrow central range.",
    "Disappointing August data is consistent with the ladder's pricing above 4.0%, where 86% of weight sits, well above the sub-4% territory.",
    "The separate peak unemployment ladder prices only 27% above 4.5% before 2027, suggesting markets do not see a sharp labor market deterioration ahead.",
    "White House characterization of an upward trajectory is at odds with market pricing that puts the rate solidly above 4.0% through August."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Kevin Smith",
          "source_url": "https://www.marketscreener.com/news/should-we-be-worried-about-the-us-economy-ce7859dcd989fe2c",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-08-20T08:32:51+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "August economic data has disappointed, with July hiring and other indicators undermining the narrative of a strong US economy.",
      "publisher": "Kevin Smith",
      "published_at": "2026-08-19T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.marketscreener.com/news/should-we-be-worried-about-the-us-economy-ce7859dcd989fe2c"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi ladder resolves via Bureau of Labor Statistics Employment Situation report; 96% above 3.7% reflects virtually no chance of a return to prior lows."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Kevin Smith: Should we be worried about the US economy? | MarketScreener",
      "url": "https://www.marketscreener.com/news/should-we-be-worried-about-the-us-economy-ce7859dcd989fe2c",
      "published_at": "2026-08-19T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-08-20T08:32:51+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/us-aug-unemployment-rate-seen-4-1-4-2-kalshi-ladder-2026-08-19/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/us-aug-unemployment-rate-seen-4-1-4-2-kalshi-ladder-2026-08-19.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}