{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026062307",
  "record_slug": "us-bans-cbdc-by-end-of-2026-kalshi-98-2026-06-23",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-06-23T05:57:02.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "US CBDC ban by year-end nears full pricing on Kalshi",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi 98%",
  "headline": "US bans CBDC by end of 2026: Kalshi 98%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "lagging",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-B8S55432V7",
  "target_event_slug": "kxcbdcban-26may",
  "event_question": "Will the United States ban central bank digital currency by the end of 2026?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXCBDCBAN-26MAY",
    "question_raw": "Will legislation prohibiting the Federal Reserve from studying, developing, or issuing a central bank digital currency become law before Jan 1, 2027?",
    "current_price": 0.98,
    "volume_24h_usd": 0,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "White House",
    "resolves_at": "2027-01-01T15:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi prices the US banning a central bank digital currency by end of 2026 at 98%.",
    "The Senate's 85-5 passage of the housing bill embedding the CBDC ban is consistent with the near-certain pricing; overwhelming bipartisan margin reduces veto or amendment risk.",
    "The bill still requires House passage and presidential signature; the 2% residual reflects that procedural tail.",
    "Resolves via White House signature confirmation; failure of the broader housing bill in the House could reopen the gap."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "theblock.co",
          "source_url": "https://www.theblock.co/post/405746/us-senate-passes-housing-cbdc-bill",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-06-23T10:59:18+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "The US Senate passed an 85-5 bipartisan housing supply bill that included a provision banning central bank digital currency.",
      "publisher": "theblock.co",
      "published_at": "2026-06-23T05:57:02.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.theblock.co/post/405746/us-senate-passes-housing-cbdc-bill"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi's 98% on a CBDC ban reflects the Senate supermajority vote as a strong signal, with only legislative process risk remaining."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "theblock.co: US Senate passes housing supply bill featuring CBDC ban in 85-5 vote |",
      "url": "https://www.theblock.co/post/405746/us-senate-passes-housing-cbdc-bill",
      "published_at": "2026-06-23T05:57:02.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-06-23T10:59:18+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/us-bans-cbdc-by-end-of-2026-kalshi-98-2026-06-23/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/us-bans-cbdc-by-end-of-2026-kalshi-98-2026-06-23.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}