{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026062608",
  "record_slug": "us-bans-retail-cbdc-by-end-of-2026-kalshi-97-2026-06-26",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-06-26T12:51:24.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "US CBDC ban by end of 2026 nears full pricing on Congress move",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi 97%",
  "headline": "US bans retail CBDC by end of 2026: Kalshi 97%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-B8S55432V7",
  "target_event_slug": "kxcbdcban-26may",
  "event_question": "Will the United States ban central bank digital currency by the end of 2026?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXCBDCBAN-26MAY",
    "question_raw": "Will legislation prohibiting the Federal Reserve from studying, developing, or issuing a central bank digital currency become law before Jan 1, 2027?",
    "current_price": 0.97,
    "volume_24h_usd": 0,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "White House",
    "resolves_at": "2027-01-01T15:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi prices a 97% probability that the United States will ban a central bank digital currency by end of 2026.",
    "Congressional action blocking a retail Fed digital dollar is directly consistent with the near-full pricing on Kalshi.",
    "Companion Polymarket contract (CM-EVT-87QV1G78C4) at 51% on the Fed raising rates at least once in 2026 shows the broader monetary policy picture remains genuinely split.",
    "Resolves via the White House; a signed bill or executive action formally prohibiting a retail CBDC satisfies the contract."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Sarah Thompson",
          "source_url": "https://theunhashed.com/congress-just-handed-crypto-a-digital-dollar-victory/",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-06-27T01:35:43+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "Congress moved to block the Federal Reserve from launching a retail central bank digital currency, handing crypto advocates a major legislative victory.",
      "publisher": "Sarah Thompson",
      "published_at": "2026-06-26T12:51:24.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://theunhashed.com/congress-just-handed-crypto-a-digital-dollar-victory/"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi at 97% is effectively a priced-in outcome, with Congressional action in this story confirming the legislative trajectory the market had already anticipated."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Sarah Thompson: Congress Just Handed Crypto a Digital-Dollar Victory, theUnhashed",
      "url": "https://theunhashed.com/congress-just-handed-crypto-a-digital-dollar-victory/",
      "published_at": "2026-06-26T12:51:24.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-06-27T01:35:43+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/us-bans-retail-cbdc-by-end-of-2026-kalshi-97-2026-06-26/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/us-bans-retail-cbdc-by-end-of-2026-kalshi-97-2026-06-26.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}