{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026092505",
  "record_slug": "us-china-tariff-deal-by-dec-31-polymarket-95-2026-09-25",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-09-25T00:00:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "US-China tariff agreement by year-end stays near full pricing",
  "telemetry": "Polymarket 95%",
  "headline": "US-China tariff deal by Dec 31: Polymarket 95%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-09-25",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-52GRJCHNR9",
  "target_event_slug": "us-x-china-tariff-agreement-by-december-31",
  "event_question": "Will the US and China reach a tariff agreement by December 31?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "polymarket",
    "platform_market_id": "0xf9c12aa09c5317d1cf8d26d0dc100a69ecf70e5132e81ef078d5336f63923b5e",
    "question_raw": "US x China tariff agreement by December 31?",
    "current_price": 0.949,
    "volume_24h_usd": 9652.738538999998,
    "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
    "resolves_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "The Polymarket contract prices a 95% chance the US and China reach a tariff agreement by December 31, 2026.",
    "Xi's White House visit, the highest-profile diplomatic contact of the year, is consistent with near-full market pricing of a deal, even though the summit fell short of a complete breakthrough.",
    "The partial nature of the summit outcome did not push the Polymarket contract meaningfully below its near-ceiling level, suggesting the market treats a formal agreement as a formality given existing framework talks.",
    "Resolves via Polymarket's UMA oracle; the contract requires a formal tariff agreement, not merely a communique or freeze, a key edge case if only a partial deal is announced."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "bbc.co.uk",
          "source_url": "https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cr93e4x7kdjjo",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-09-25T07:47:46+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market"
      },
      "story": "Xi Jinping received a red carpet welcome at the White House but did not secure all he wanted from the Trump summit, per BBC reporting.",
      "publisher": "bbc.co.uk",
      "published_at": "2026-09-25T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cr93e4x7kdjjo"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Polymarket contract at 95%; resolves via UMA oracle with a formal agreement required, not a press statement or interim framework."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "bbc.co.uk: Xi Jinping got the red carpet treatment from Trump - but not everythin",
      "url": "https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cr93e4x7kdjjo",
      "published_at": "2026-09-25T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-09-25T07:47:46+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/us-china-tariff-deal-by-dec-31-polymarket-95-2026-09-25/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/us-china-tariff-deal-by-dec-31-polymarket-95-2026-09-25.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}