{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026081808",
  "record_slug": "us-court-rules-2020-election-fraudulent-polymarket-10-2026-08-18",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-08-18T00:00:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "US court ruling the 2020 election fraudulent remains a long shot",
  "telemetry": "Polymarket 10%",
  "headline": "US court rules 2020 election fraudulent: Polymarket 10%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-09-05",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-7HNZXDK5W1",
  "target_event_slug": "will-a-us-court-rule-that-the-2020-election-was-fradulent",
  "event_question": "Will a US court rule that the 2020 election was fraudulent?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "polymarket",
    "platform_market_id": "0xda3ef046c470321eab987fcd92c61a1b50c75f899ccbeabf4c7e08bff111014f",
    "question_raw": "Will a US court rule that the 2020 election was fraudulent?",
    "current_price": 0.1,
    "volume_24h_usd": 0,
    "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
    "resolves_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "The Polymarket contract puts only 10% on a US court ruling the 2020 election was fraudulent.",
    "Trump's renewed claims are a recurring narrative, but Polymarket pricing treats a formal judicial finding of fraud as a remote outcome.",
    "No court has upheld these claims across numerous post-2020 proceedings; the 10% price reflects residual tail risk rather than market agreement with the allegation.",
    "Resolves via Polymarket UMA oracle; a qualifying ruling would need to be from a recognized US court explicitly finding the election fraudulent."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Cleve R. Wootson Jr.",
          "source_url": "https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2026/08/18/trump-revives-unverified-claims-noncitizen-voting-2020/",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-08-21T08:35:01+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market"
      },
      "story": "President Trump revived claims of noncitizen voting in 2020, citing a Census review he said uncovered 24,000 illegal votes, assertions experts and fact-checkers dispute.",
      "publisher": "Cleve R. Wootson Jr.",
      "published_at": "2026-08-18T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2026/08/18/trump-revives-unverified-claims-noncitizen-voting-2020/"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Polymarket contract resolves via UMA oracle; the 10% price has held as a persistent low-probability reading across repeated Trump fraud claim cycles."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Cleve R. Wootson Jr.: Trump revives unverified claims of noncitizen voting in 2020 - The Was",
      "url": "https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2026/08/18/trump-revives-unverified-claims-noncitizen-voting-2020/",
      "published_at": "2026-08-18T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-08-21T08:35:01+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/us-court-rules-2020-election-fraudulent-polymarket-10-2026-08-18/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/us-court-rules-2020-election-fraudulent-polymarket-10-2026-08-18.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}