{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026071606",
  "record_slug": "us-court-rules-2020-election-fraudulent-polymarket-14-2026-07-16",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-07-16T04:10:20.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Fraud ruling on 2020 election stays at deep discount",
  "telemetry": "Polymarket 14%",
  "headline": "US court rules 2020 election fraudulent: Polymarket 14%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-07-21",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-7HNZXDK5W1",
  "target_event_slug": "will-a-us-court-rule-that-the-2020-election-was-fradulent",
  "event_question": "Will a US court rule that the 2020 election was fraudulent?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "polymarket",
    "platform_market_id": "0xda3ef046c470321eab987fcd92c61a1b50c75f899ccbeabf4c7e08bff111014f",
    "question_raw": "Will a US court rule that the 2020 election was fradulent?",
    "current_price": 0.14,
    "volume_24h_usd": 0,
    "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
    "resolves_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Polymarket prices only 14% on any US court ruling the 2020 election fraudulent, despite Trump's primetime primetime White House address on the topic.",
    "Trump's speech leveled new allegations about Georgia voting machines and foreign influence, but prediction markets remain well below 50% on a formal judicial finding.",
    "A companion Polymarket contract on Trump declaring election interference a national emergency sits at 15%, suggesting markets treat the speech as political positioning rather than a legal precursor.",
    "Polymarket resolves via UMA oracle; a court ruling of fraud is a high legal bar requiring active litigation and judicial findings, not executive declarations."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "apnews.com",
          "source_url": "https://apnews.com/article/trump-election-falsehoods-primetime-address-0b149a2c1adcba340174ee4e30b15133",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-07-16T10:04:17+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market"
      },
      "story": "President Trump brought his 2020 election fraud claims to a White House primetime address, renewing accusations about voting machine vulnerability and foreign influence.",
      "publisher": "apnews.com",
      "published_at": "2026-07-16T04:10:20.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://apnews.com/article/trump-election-falsehoods-primetime-address-0b149a2c1adcba340174ee4e30b15133"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Polymarket at 14% on a fraud ruling is consistent with the 15% national emergency contract, implying markets price these as correlated but low-probability institutional outcomes."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "apnews.com: Trump brings his 2020 election obsession to primetime at White House |",
      "url": "https://apnews.com/article/trump-election-falsehoods-primetime-address-0b149a2c1adcba340174ee4e30b15133",
      "published_at": "2026-07-16T04:10:20.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-07-16T10:04:17+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/us-court-rules-2020-election-fraudulent-polymarket-14-2026-07-16/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/us-court-rules-2020-election-fraudulent-polymarket-14-2026-07-16.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}