{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026070205",
  "record_slug": "us-crypto-market-structure-bill-by-jan-2027-kalshi-39-2026-07-02",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-07-02T14:09:17.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "US crypto market structure bill by year-end wavers near coin flip",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi 39%",
  "headline": "US crypto market structure bill by Jan 2027: Kalshi 39%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-25SXVWH5D4",
  "target_event_slug": "kxcryptostructure-26jan",
  "event_question": "Will a crypto market structure bill becomes law before Jan 1, 2027?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXCRYPTOSTRUCTURE-26JAN-27",
    "question_raw": "Will a crypto market structure bill becomes law before Jan 1, 2027?",
    "current_price": 0.39,
    "volume_24h_usd": 2241.29,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "White House",
    "resolves_at": "2027-01-01T15:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "The Kalshi prediction market puts 39% on a US crypto market structure bill becoming law before January 1, 2027.",
    "Japan's landmark tax cut passage raises the regulatory comparison bar, but the Kalshi contract at 39% shows the US market is not pricing a high-confidence legislative outcome this year.",
    "The companion Polymarket contract CM-EVT-ZXN47LV744 puts 40% on the Clarity Act specifically being signed by end of 2026, a near-identical read that corroborates the 39% Kalshi figure across venues.",
    "Kalshi contract resolves via White House confirmation of bill signing; the two-month window to year-end is the primary resolution risk given congressional calendar uncertainty."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "bitrss.com",
          "source_url": "https://bitrss.com/japan-passes-crypto-bill-to-cut-bitcoin-and-ethereum-tax-rate-from-55-to-20-220046",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-07-03T10:32:12+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "Japan passed a bill cutting crypto tax rates from 55% to 20% and reclassifying cryptocurrencies as financial instruments, intensifying pressure on US legislative comparisons.",
      "publisher": "bitrss.com",
      "published_at": "2026-07-02T14:09:17.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://bitrss.com/japan-passes-crypto-bill-to-cut-bitcoin-and-ethereum-tax-rate-from-55-to-20-220046"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi binary at 39% and Polymarket binary CM-EVT-ZXN47LV744 at 40% show rare cross-venue alignment, reinforcing sub-50% odds for US crypto legislation in 2026."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "bitrss.com: Japan Passes Crypto Bill to Cut Bitcoin and Ethereum Tax Rate From 55%",
      "url": "https://bitrss.com/japan-passes-crypto-bill-to-cut-bitcoin-and-ethereum-tax-rate-from-55-to-20-220046",
      "published_at": "2026-07-02T14:09:17.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-07-03T10:32:12+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/us-crypto-market-structure-bill-by-jan-2027-kalshi-39-2026-07-02/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/us-crypto-market-structure-bill-by-jan-2027-kalshi-39-2026-07-02.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}