{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG20260728DV02",
  "record_slug": "us-economy-recession-k8-p13",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-07-28T10:31:37+00:00",
  "semantic_title": "Recession-in-2026 odds diverge, Polymarket builds the higher price",
  "telemetry": "Polymarket 13% vs Kalshi 8%",
  "headline": "US recession in 2026: Kalshi 8% vs Polymarket 13%",
  "category_tag": "CROSS_VENUE_DIVERGENCE",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "cross_venue_divergence",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-07-28",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-L7017DJDX1",
  "target_event_slug": "kxrecssnber-26",
  "event_question": "Will there be a recession in 2026?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "polymarket",
    "platform_market_id": "0xfdc73f10edf0266756686f35b5712cffa828b0940fc015e0426c76c934c2105d",
    "question_raw": "US recession by end of 2026?",
    "current_price": 0.13,
    "volume_cumulative_usd": 1685124.0479729977,
    "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
    "resolves_at": "2027-01-31T00:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [
    {
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXRECSSNBER-26",
      "question_raw": "Will there be a recession in 2026?",
      "current_price": 0.08
    }
  ],
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi prices a 2026 recession at 8%, Polymarket at 13%, a 5pp gap",
    "Polymarket is higher and carries vastly deeper liquidity; Kalshi's book is comparatively thin",
    "Polymarket's larger, more active base may be incorporating macro data more efficiently, making its 13% the stronger signal",
    "Resolution typically tied to NBER official recession declaration within the 2026 calendar year"
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "cross_venue_spread",
      "provenance": "CM cross-venue link (question_id CMX-2FB03D51D4); prices direct from venue APIs",
      "field_provenance": {
        "kalshi_price": {
          "tier": "direct",
          "method": "kalshi_api"
        },
        "poly_price": {
          "tier": "direct",
          "method": "polymarket_clob_api"
        },
        "divergence_pp": {
          "tier": "derived",
          "method": "arithmetic",
          "inputs": [
            "kalshi_price",
            "poly_price"
          ]
        }
      },
      "liquidity_context": {
        "poly_vol_24h_usd": 291.309089,
        "kalshi_vol_24h_usd": 694.58
      }
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "ClearMarket cross-venue record: Will there be a recession in 2026?",
      "url": "https://clearmarket.fyi/compare/us-economy-recession-y-2026",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-07-28T10:31:37+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api, polymarket_clob_api",
    "news_context": "retrieval_grounded",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/us-economy-recession-k8-p13/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/us-economy-recession-k8-p13.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}