{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG20260916DV04",
  "record_slug": "us-economy-recession-k9-p14",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-09-16T13:04:24+00:00",
  "semantic_title": "US recession in 2026 stays near long-shot odds, gaps modestly across desks",
  "telemetry": "Polymarket 14% vs Kalshi 9%",
  "headline": "US recession in 2026: Kalshi 9% vs Polymarket 14%",
  "category_tag": "CROSS_VENUE_DIVERGENCE",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "cross_venue_divergence",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-09-16",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-L7017DJDX1",
  "target_event_slug": "kxrecssnber-26",
  "event_question": "Will there be a recession in 2026?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "polymarket",
    "platform_market_id": "0xfdc73f10edf0266756686f35b5712cffa828b0940fc015e0426c76c934c2105d",
    "question_raw": "US recession by end of 2026?",
    "current_price": 0.14,
    "volume_cumulative_usd": 1946555.666463,
    "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
    "resolves_at": "2027-01-31T00:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [
    {
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXRECSSNBER-26",
      "question_raw": "Will there be a recession in 2026?",
      "current_price": 0.09
    }
  ],
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi prices a 2026 recession at 9%, Polymarket at 14%, a 5pp gap",
    "Polymarket is the higher venue and holds roughly 6x Kalshi's cumulative volume",
    "Both venues carry substantial liquidity here, making this the most credibly contested divergence in the batch",
    "Resolution hinges on the official definition of recession applied, typically two consecutive quarters of negative GDP"
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "cross_venue_spread",
      "provenance": "CM cross-venue link (question_id CMX-2FB03D51D4); prices direct from venue APIs",
      "field_provenance": {
        "kalshi_price": {
          "tier": "direct",
          "method": "kalshi_api"
        },
        "poly_price": {
          "tier": "direct",
          "method": "polymarket_clob_api"
        },
        "divergence_pp": {
          "tier": "derived",
          "method": "arithmetic",
          "inputs": [
            "kalshi_price",
            "poly_price"
          ]
        }
      },
      "liquidity_context": {
        "poly_vol_24h_usd": 193300.093286,
        "kalshi_vol_24h_usd": 1866.53
      }
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "ClearMarket cross-venue record: Will there be a recession in 2026?",
      "url": "https://clearmarket.fyi/compare/us-economy-recession-y-2026",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-09-16T13:04:24+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api, polymarket_clob_api",
    "news_context": "retrieval_grounded",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/us-economy-recession-k9-p14/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/us-economy-recession-k9-p14.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}