{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG20260803DV01",
  "record_slug": "us-economy-soft-landing-k61-p54",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-08-03T11:19:40+00:00",
  "semantic_title": "Economy-state outlook builds a premium on one major desk",
  "telemetry": "Polymarket 54% vs Kalshi 62%",
  "headline": "Economy strong end-2026: Kalshi 62% vs Polymarket 54%",
  "category_tag": "CROSS_VENUE_DIVERGENCE",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "cross_venue_divergence",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-08-03",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-ZRG5DFDMZ8",
  "target_event_slug": "kxeconpath-26",
  "event_question": "State of the economy at the end of 2026?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "polymarket",
    "platform_market_id": "0x50e3ee8f93a464d04ea2cea6efff45c902f43642aedbf43f7afdc899e10f71d8",
    "question_raw": "Will the US economy be in a soft landing at the end of 2026?",
    "current_price": 0.54,
    "volume_cumulative_usd": 30419.807992999995,
    "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
    "resolves_at": "2027-01-31T00:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [
    {
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXECONPATH-26-SOFT",
      "question_raw": "State of the economy at the end of 2026?",
      "current_price": 0.617
    }
  ],
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi prices a strong economy at end-2026 at 62%, Polymarket at 54%, an 8pp gap.",
    "Kalshi is higher at $11,475 volume; Polymarket is lower at $30,420 volume.",
    "Subjective resolution language may drive divergence, venues may interpret 'strong economy' differently in their rule sets.",
    "Resolution likely tied to GDP, unemployment, or editorial economic benchmarks at year-end 2026."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "cross_venue_spread",
      "provenance": "CM cross-venue link (question_id CMX-534611296D); prices direct from venue APIs",
      "field_provenance": {
        "kalshi_price": {
          "tier": "direct",
          "method": "kalshi_api"
        },
        "poly_price": {
          "tier": "direct",
          "method": "polymarket_clob_api"
        },
        "divergence_pp": {
          "tier": "derived",
          "method": "arithmetic",
          "inputs": [
            "kalshi_price",
            "poly_price"
          ]
        }
      },
      "liquidity_context": {
        "poly_vol_24h_usd": 366.86666499999995,
        "kalshi_vol_24h_usd": 4.86
      }
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "ClearMarket cross-venue record: State of the economy at the end of 2026?",
      "url": "https://clearmarket.fyi/compare/us-economy-soft-landing-y-2026",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-08-03T11:19:40+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api, polymarket_clob_api",
    "news_context": "retrieval_grounded",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/us-economy-soft-landing-k61-p54/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/us-economy-soft-landing-k61-p54.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}