{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG20260808DV01",
  "record_slug": "us-economy-soft-landing-k62-p55",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-08-08T08:36:39+00:00",
  "semantic_title": "Economy-state claim carries a premium on one major desk",
  "telemetry": "Polymarket 55% vs Kalshi 62%",
  "headline": "U.S. economy 'good/great' end-2026: Kalshi 62% vs Polymarket 55%",
  "category_tag": "CROSS_VENUE_DIVERGENCE",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "cross_venue_divergence",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-09-05",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-ZRG5DFDMZ8",
  "target_event_slug": "kxeconpath-26",
  "event_question": "State of the economy at the end of 2026?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "polymarket",
    "platform_market_id": "0x50e3ee8f93a464d04ea2cea6efff45c902f43642aedbf43f7afdc899e10f71d8",
    "question_raw": "Will the US economy be in a soft landing at the end of 2026?",
    "current_price": 0.55,
    "volume_cumulative_usd": 30518.747993,
    "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
    "resolves_at": "2027-01-31T00:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [
    {
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXECONPATH-26-SOFT",
      "question_raw": "State of the economy at the end of 2026?",
      "current_price": 0.62
    }
  ],
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi prices a positive economic outcome at 62%, Polymarket at 55%, a 7pp gap",
    "Kalshi is higher; Polymarket holds roughly 2.6x more cumulative volume",
    "Subjective resolution language ('state of the economy') likely drives divergence, venues may use different adjudication sources or crowd definitions",
    "Resolution depends on the specific scoring criteria each platform applies to economic conditions at year-end 2026"
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "cross_venue_spread",
      "provenance": "CM cross-venue link (question_id CMX-534611296D); prices direct from venue APIs",
      "field_provenance": {
        "kalshi_price": {
          "tier": "direct",
          "method": "kalshi_api"
        },
        "poly_price": {
          "tier": "direct",
          "method": "polymarket_clob_api"
        },
        "divergence_pp": {
          "tier": "derived",
          "method": "arithmetic",
          "inputs": [
            "kalshi_price",
            "poly_price"
          ]
        }
      },
      "liquidity_context": {
        "poly_vol_24h_usd": 11.95,
        "kalshi_vol_24h_usd": 10.7
      }
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "ClearMarket cross-venue record: State of the economy at the end of 2026?",
      "url": "https://clearmarket.fyi/compare/us-economy-soft-landing-y-2026",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-08-08T08:36:39+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api, polymarket_clob_api",
    "news_context": "retrieval_grounded",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/us-economy-soft-landing-k62-p55/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/us-economy-soft-landing-k62-p55.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}