{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG20260802DV02",
  "record_slug": "us-economy-stagflation-k12-p5",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-08-02T09:54:06+00:00",
  "semantic_title": "Recession call for end of 2026 trades far apart on the major desks",
  "telemetry": "Polymarket 6% vs Kalshi 12%",
  "headline": "U.S. economy in recession end-2026: Kalshi 12% vs Polymarket 6%",
  "category_tag": "CROSS_VENUE_DIVERGENCE",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "cross_venue_divergence",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-08-02",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-ZRG5DFDMZ8",
  "target_event_slug": "kxeconpath-26",
  "event_question": "State of the economy at the end of 2026?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "polymarket",
    "platform_market_id": "0x9b1804352d6246bc8b609bc05a3021134269c133bda15e76e05f844539b59774",
    "question_raw": "Will the US economy be in stagflation at the end of 2026?",
    "current_price": 0.057,
    "volume_cumulative_usd": 9642.057142000001,
    "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
    "resolves_at": "2027-01-31T00:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [
    {
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXECONPATH-26-STAG",
      "question_raw": "State of the economy at the end of 2026?",
      "current_price": 0.12
    }
  ],
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi prices a recessionary outcome at 12%, Polymarket at 6%, a 6pp gap",
    "Kalshi is double Polymarket's odds; Polymarket holds three times Kalshi's cumulative volume",
    "Resolution ambiguity, defining 'state of the economy', may explain why the smaller venue prices in more uncertainty",
    "Resolves based on an agreed economic indicator or official designation at year-end 2026"
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "cross_venue_spread",
      "provenance": "CM cross-venue link (question_id CMX-DF50C877D3); prices direct from venue APIs",
      "field_provenance": {
        "kalshi_price": {
          "tier": "direct",
          "method": "kalshi_api"
        },
        "poly_price": {
          "tier": "direct",
          "method": "polymarket_clob_api"
        },
        "divergence_pp": {
          "tier": "derived",
          "method": "arithmetic",
          "inputs": [
            "kalshi_price",
            "poly_price"
          ]
        }
      },
      "liquidity_context": {
        "poly_vol_24h_usd": 666.675031,
        "kalshi_vol_24h_usd": 72.64
      }
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "ClearMarket cross-venue record: State of the economy at the end of 2026?",
      "url": "https://clearmarket.fyi/compare/us-economy-stagflation-y-2026",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-08-02T09:54:06+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api, polymarket_clob_api",
    "news_context": "retrieval_grounded",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/us-economy-stagflation-k12-p5/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/us-economy-stagflation-k12-p5.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}