{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG20260731DV01",
  "record_slug": "us-economy-stagflation-k15-p7",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-07-31T10:35:59+00:00",
  "semantic_title": "Strong-economy verdict for 2026 carries a premium on one venue",
  "telemetry": "Polymarket 7% vs Kalshi 16%",
  "headline": "Economy 'strong' at end of 2026: Kalshi 16% vs Polymarket 7%",
  "category_tag": "CROSS_VENUE_DIVERGENCE",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "cross_venue_divergence",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-08-01",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-ZRG5DFDMZ8",
  "target_event_slug": "kxeconpath-26",
  "event_question": "State of the economy at the end of 2026?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "polymarket",
    "platform_market_id": "0x9b1804352d6246bc8b609bc05a3021134269c133bda15e76e05f844539b59774",
    "question_raw": "Will the US economy be in stagflation at the end of 2026?",
    "current_price": 0.073,
    "volume_cumulative_usd": 7473.567274000001,
    "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
    "resolves_at": "2027-01-31T00:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [
    {
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXECONPATH-26-STAG",
      "question_raw": "State of the economy at the end of 2026?",
      "current_price": 0.159
    }
  ],
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi prices a strong-economy outcome at 16%, Polymarket at 7%, a 9pp gap",
    "Kalshi is the higher-side venue; both markets carry relatively thin liquidity, limiting confidence in either print",
    "Divergence likely reflects differing resolution criteria or subjective language in how each venue defines 'strong' economy",
    "Resolution mechanics, who judges the economic state and by what benchmark, are the key variable to audit before trading"
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "cross_venue_spread",
      "provenance": "CM cross-venue link (question_id CMX-DF50C877D3); prices direct from venue APIs",
      "field_provenance": {
        "kalshi_price": {
          "tier": "direct",
          "method": "kalshi_api"
        },
        "poly_price": {
          "tier": "direct",
          "method": "polymarket_clob_api"
        },
        "divergence_pp": {
          "tier": "derived",
          "method": "arithmetic",
          "inputs": [
            "kalshi_price",
            "poly_price"
          ]
        }
      },
      "liquidity_context": {
        "poly_vol_24h_usd": 28.98,
        "kalshi_vol_24h_usd": 0.84
      }
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "ClearMarket cross-venue record: State of the economy at the end of 2026?",
      "url": "https://clearmarket.fyi/compare/us-economy-stagflation-y-2026",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-07-31T10:35:59+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api, polymarket_clob_api",
    "news_context": "retrieval_grounded",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/us-economy-stagflation-k15-p7/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/us-economy-stagflation-k15-p7.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}