{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026092705",
  "record_slug": "us-embassy-in-iran-reopens-kalshi-4-2026-09-27",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-09-27T05:46:10.990Z",
  "semantic_title": "US embassy reopening in Iran stays a long shot despite diplomacy",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi 4%",
  "headline": "US embassy in Iran reopens: Kalshi 4%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-09-30",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-34SYT4T2T1",
  "target_event_slug": "kxiranembassy-27",
  "event_question": "Will the United States reopen its embassy in Iran?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXIRANEMBASSY-27",
    "question_raw": "Will the US reopen its embassy in Iran before Jan 1, 2027?",
    "current_price": 0.037,
    "volume_24h_usd": 13.13,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "The New York Times",
    "resolves_at": "2027-01-01T15:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi prices only a 4% chance the United States reopens its embassy in Iran, per the New York Times resolution standard.",
    "Trading volume on this Kalshi contract surged 1,553 times the prior day's level, signaling a sharp spike in attention to the claim.",
    "Despite the volume surge, the 4% price shows the market is not treating diplomatic activity as a credible path to embassy normalization.",
    "Trump's concurrent rejection of Iran's Hormuz proposal, with Polymarket at 21% on Hormuz normalization by year-end, reinforces the low embassy odds."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Dr.Nadia Helmy",
          "source_url": "https://moderndiplomacy.eu/2026/09/27/xi-jinpings-us-visit-what-it-means-for-egypt-the-middle-east-and-red-sea-security/",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-09-27T07:47:06+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "Chinese President Xi Jinping visited the U.S. in September 2026, contributing to geopolitical rebalancing that touched on Middle East diplomacy.",
      "publisher": "Dr.Nadia Helmy",
      "published_at": "2026-09-27T05:46:10.990Z",
      "source_url": "https://moderndiplomacy.eu/2026/09/27/xi-jinpings-us-visit-what-it-means-for-egypt-the-middle-east-and-red-sea-security/"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi contract resolves via The New York Times confirmation; the massive volume spike with no price move is the key signal, attention is high but conviction on resolution is near zero."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Dr.Nadia Helmy: Xi Jinping’s US Visit: What It Means for Egypt, the Middle East and Re",
      "url": "https://moderndiplomacy.eu/2026/09/27/xi-jinpings-us-visit-what-it-means-for-egypt-the-middle-east-and-red-sea-security/",
      "published_at": "2026-09-27T05:46:10.990Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-09-27T07:47:06+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/us-embassy-in-iran-reopens-kalshi-4-2026-09-27/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/us-embassy-in-iran-reopens-kalshi-4-2026-09-27.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}