{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026100107",
  "record_slug": "us-embassy-reopen-in-iran-kalshi-2-2026-10-01",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-10-01T00:00:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "US embassy reopening in Iran stays a long shot at 2 percent",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi 2%",
  "headline": "US embassy reopen in Iran: Kalshi 2%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-10-01",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-34SYT4T2T1",
  "target_event_slug": "kxiranembassy-27",
  "event_question": "Will the United States reopen its embassy in Iran?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXIRANEMBASSY-27",
    "question_raw": "Will the US reopen its embassy in Iran before Jan 1, 2027?",
    "current_price": 0.024,
    "volume_24h_usd": 2.64,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "The New York Times",
    "resolves_at": "2027-01-01T15:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi prices the US reopening its embassy in Iran at 2%, consistent with near-complete market skepticism about a diplomatic breakthrough.",
    "Iran readying retaliatory posture and Trump's threat to strike Tehran are fully consistent with this near-zero probability; market and news are aligned.",
    "A separate Kalshi contract on the US recognizing Reza Pahlavi as Iran's leader sits at 4%, also negligible, framing the entire Iran diplomatic spectrum as a long shot.",
    "Kalshi resolves via the New York Times; the low base rate means even a credible preliminary deal announcement would likely produce sharp repricing from a very low starting point."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Parisa Hafezi",
          "source_url": "https://www.al-monitor.com/originals/2026/10/iran-readies-harder-retaliation-if-attacked-diplomacy-faces-long-odds",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-10-01T15:03:15+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "Iran is readying harder retaliation if attacked as US-Iran diplomacy faces long odds, with both sides believing they hold sufficient leverage.",
      "publisher": "Parisa Hafezi",
      "published_at": "2026-10-01T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.al-monitor.com/originals/2026/10/iran-readies-harder-retaliation-if-attacked-diplomacy-faces-long-odds"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi contract resolves via the New York Times; at 2%, this is one of the most one-sided political contracts in the current batch, pricing out any near-term normalization scenario."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Parisa Hafezi: Iran readies harder retaliation if attacked as diplomacy faces long od",
      "url": "https://www.al-monitor.com/originals/2026/10/iran-readies-harder-retaliation-if-attacked-diplomacy-faces-long-odds",
      "published_at": "2026-10-01T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-10-01T15:03:15+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/us-embassy-reopen-in-iran-kalshi-2-2026-10-01/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/us-embassy-reopen-in-iran-kalshi-2-2026-10-01.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}