{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026093005",
  "record_slug": "us-embassy-reopens-in-iran-kalshi-4-2026-09-30",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-09-30T00:00:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "US embassy reopening in Iran stays a long shot at 4 percent",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi 4%",
  "headline": "US embassy reopens in Iran: Kalshi 4%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-09-30",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-34SYT4T2T1",
  "target_event_slug": "kxiranembassy-27",
  "event_question": "Will the United States reopen its embassy in Iran?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXIRANEMBASSY-27",
    "question_raw": "Will the US reopen its embassy in Iran before Jan 1, 2027?",
    "current_price": 0.038,
    "volume_24h_usd": 0.39,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "The New York Times",
    "resolves_at": "2027-01-01T15:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "The Kalshi prediction market puts only 4% on the United States reopening its embassy in Iran, resolving via The New York Times.",
    "Backchannel ceasefire talks via Qatar are an early-stage signal; the market treats full diplomatic normalization as a very distant outcome even as talks resume.",
    "The Polymarket contract on Iran withdrawing from the NPT before 2027 sits at 10%, suggesting the market sees nuclear escalation as more likely than full diplomatic rapprochement.",
    "Embassy reopening requires sustained agreement well beyond a ceasefire; the named resolution source is The New York Times confirmation, not a government announcement alone."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Thomson Reuters",
          "source_url": "https://www.republicworld.com/world-news/wrapup-1-us-iran-separately-talk-with-mediators-in-latest-bid-to-end-war-2026-09-30-137961",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-09-30T07:47:19+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "US and Iranian officials separately spoke with Qatari mediators exploring a ceasefire and reopening of the Strait of Hormuz after seven months of conflict.",
      "publisher": "Thomson Reuters",
      "published_at": "2026-09-30T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.republicworld.com/world-news/wrapup-1-us-iran-separately-talk-with-mediators-in-latest-bid-to-end-war-2026-09-30-137961"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi at 4% puts long odds on embassy reopening despite active backchannel talks, signaling the market expects at most a limited ceasefire, not normalized relations."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Thomson Reuters: After 7 Months Of War, US And Iran Reopen Backchannel For Ceasefire |",
      "url": "https://www.republicworld.com/world-news/wrapup-1-us-iran-separately-talk-with-mediators-in-latest-bid-to-end-war-2026-09-30-137961",
      "published_at": "2026-09-30T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-09-30T07:47:19+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/us-embassy-reopens-in-iran-kalshi-4-2026-09-30/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/us-embassy-reopens-in-iran-kalshi-4-2026-09-30.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}