{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026072406",
  "record_slug": "us-embassy-reopens-in-iran-kalshi-5-2026-07-24",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-07-24T00:00:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "US embassy reopening in Iran stays a heavy long shot at 5%",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi 5%",
  "headline": "US embassy reopens in Iran: Kalshi 5%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-07-28",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-34SYT4T2T1",
  "target_event_slug": "kxiranembassy-27",
  "event_question": "Will the United States reopen its embassy in Iran?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXIRANEMBASSY-27",
    "question_raw": "Will the US reopen its embassy in Iran before Jan 1, 2027?",
    "current_price": 0.051,
    "volume_24h_usd": 19.18,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "The New York Times",
    "resolves_at": "2027-01-01T15:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi prices only 5% on the US reopening its embassy in Iran, a strong diplomatic normalization marker that the market firmly rejects.",
    "Iran's rejection of the Iraqi-brokered ceasefire proposal is fully consistent with the near-zero embassy probability; the market sees no diplomatic off-ramp in sight.",
    "Polymarket (CM-EVT-WD982793G1) prices a 29% chance the US invades Iran outright before 2027, this higher probability on escalation versus the 5% on normalization illustrates the market's asymmetric war-scenario lean.",
    "Kalshi resolves via The New York Times; embassy reopening is a lagging diplomatic indicator that requires ceasefire, deal, and formal restoration of relations, all currently near zero probability."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "timesnownews.com",
          "source_url": "https://www.timesnownews.com/world/middle-east/trumps-ceasefire-bid-collapses-iran-rejects-iraqi-brokered-us-proposal-article-155160592",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-07-24T10:13:15+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "Iran rejected a US ceasefire proposal conveyed by Iraqi Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi after his meeting with President Donald Trump, as strikes continued for a 13th night.",
      "publisher": "timesnownews.com",
      "published_at": "2026-07-24T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.timesnownews.com/world/middle-east/trumps-ceasefire-bid-collapses-iran-rejects-iraqi-brokered-us-proposal-article-155160592"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi contract resolves via The New York Times; the 5% price is directionally consistent with all Iran-deal and Hormuz markets in this dataset."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "timesnownews.com: Trump's Ceasefire Bid Collapses: Iran Rejects Iraqi-Brokered US Propos",
      "url": "https://www.timesnownews.com/world/middle-east/trumps-ceasefire-bid-collapses-iran-rejects-iraqi-brokered-us-proposal-article-155160592",
      "published_at": "2026-07-24T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-07-24T10:13:15+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/us-embassy-reopens-in-iran-kalshi-5-2026-07-24/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/us-embassy-reopens-in-iran-kalshi-5-2026-07-24.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}