{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026060103",
  "record_slug": "us-inflation-surge-in-2026-kalshi-implied-4-5-5-0-2026-06-01",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-06-01T04:01:46.000Z",
  "headline": "US inflation surge in 2026: Kalshi implied 4.5-5.0%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-H50NT0MZ04",
  "target_event_slug": "kxlcpimaxyoy-27",
  "event_question": "US inflation surge level 2026",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXLCPIMAXYOY-27-P5",
    "question_raw": "Inflation surge in 2026?",
    "current_price": 0.371,
    "volume_24h_usd": 26.12,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
    "resolves_at": "2027-02-14T15:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi ladder prices 65% above 4.5% inflation surge threshold and 37% above 5.0%, implying a market-expected range of 4.5-5.0%.",
    "Rising Treasury yields and bond market inflation warnings are consistent with the ladder's elevated upper-tail pricing above 5.0%.",
    "April CPI already at 3.8% with energy costs up 17.9% annually narrows the gap to the 4.5% strike significantly.",
    "Resolves via Bureau of Labor Statistics CPI data; the ladder strikes represent year-over-year CPI thresholds at defined future dates."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "ABC News",
          "source_url": "https://abcnews.com/US/wireStory/trump-facing-new-inflation-warning-bond-market-adding-133475094",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-06-03T01:50:17+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "Bond market inflation warnings mount as Trump faces midterm headwinds, with Treasury yields rising on strong data and geopolitical risk from the Iran war.",
      "publisher": "ABC News",
      "published_at": "2026-06-01T04:01:46.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://abcnews.com/US/wireStory/trump-facing-new-inflation-warning-bond-market-adding-133475094"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi ladder shows a wide distribution above 4.5% with meaningful tail above 5.5% and 6.0%, reflecting genuine uncertainty about the inflation trajectory given the Iran war energy shock."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "ABC News: Trump is facing a new inflation warning from the bond market, adding t",
      "url": "https://abcnews.com/US/wireStory/trump-facing-new-inflation-warning-bond-market-adding-133475094",
      "published_at": "2026-06-01T04:01:46.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-06-03T01:50:17+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/us-inflation-surge-in-2026-kalshi-implied-4-5-5-0-2026-06-01/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/us-inflation-surge-in-2026-kalshi-implied-4-5-5-0-2026-06-01.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}