{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026071301",
  "record_slug": "us-invade-iran-by-2027-polymarket-18-2026-07-13",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-07-13T06:50:28.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "US-Iran invasion pricing wavers amid active Gulf combat",
  "telemetry": "Polymarket 18%",
  "headline": "US invade Iran by 2027: Polymarket 18%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-WD982793G1",
  "target_event_slug": "will-the-us-invade-iran-before-2027",
  "event_question": "Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "polymarket",
    "platform_market_id": "0x5db999fad322cea2914535aae5517060c3f80ad6d8c0231cde2124a434d16846",
    "question_raw": "Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?",
    "current_price": 0.18,
    "volume_24h_usd": 152652.35095500003,
    "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
    "resolves_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Polymarket prices only 18% on a US ground invasion of Iran before 2027, despite active US air strikes across dozens of Iranian sites.",
    "Markets distinguish air-strike campaign from full invasion; current news is consistent with limited kinetic engagement, not occupation.",
    "Companion Polymarket contract on Iranian regime survival has no active price, leaving the invasion-vs-regime-change spread unresolved.",
    "Resolves via Polymarket's UMA oracle; contract language likely turns on ground troop deployment, not air strikes alone."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "straitstimes.com",
          "source_url": "https://www.straitstimes.com/world/iran-escalates-attacks-on-us-bases-in-gulf-states-warns-of-more-incidents-in-strait",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-07-13T10:56:18+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market"
      },
      "story": "US and Iranian forces exchanged strikes across the Gulf as Iran declared the Strait of Hormuz closed and widened attacks on Gulf states including Oman.",
      "publisher": "straitstimes.com",
      "published_at": "2026-07-13T06:50:28.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.straitstimes.com/world/iran-escalates-attacks-on-us-bases-in-gulf-states-warns-of-more-incidents-in-strait"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Polymarket at 18% prices the invasion scenario as a tail risk, not a base case, even as fourth-round US strikes and Hormuz closure dominate headlines."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "straitstimes.com: Iran widens attacks on US bases in Gulf, Hormuz tensions lift oil pric",
      "url": "https://www.straitstimes.com/world/iran-escalates-attacks-on-us-bases-in-gulf-states-warns-of-more-incidents-in-strait",
      "published_at": "2026-07-13T06:50:28.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-07-13T10:56:18+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/us-invade-iran-by-2027-polymarket-18-2026-07-13/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/us-invade-iran-by-2027-polymarket-18-2026-07-13.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}