{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026070106",
  "record_slug": "us-invades-iran-before-2027-polymarket-13-2026-07-01",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-07-01T08:38:25.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "US Iran invasion pricing holds low as diplomacy advances",
  "telemetry": "Polymarket 13%",
  "headline": "US invades Iran before 2027: Polymarket 13%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-WD982793G1",
  "target_event_slug": "will-the-us-invade-iran-before-2027",
  "event_question": "Will the United States invade Iran before 2027?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "polymarket",
    "platform_market_id": "0x5db999fad322cea2914535aae5517060c3f80ad6d8c0231cde2124a434d16846",
    "question_raw": "Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?",
    "current_price": 0.13,
    "volume_24h_usd": 49721.330948000024,
    "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
    "resolves_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Polymarket prediction market prices 13% on a US invasion of Iran before 2027.",
    "Qatar's 'positive progress' report and the Vance 'no return to war' statement are consistent with the low invasion probability, markets are not pricing imminent escalation.",
    "A companion Kalshi contract at 6% on the US recognizing Reza Pahlavi as Iran's leader signals markets see regime-change outcomes as even less likely than military action.",
    "Resolves via Polymarket's uma_oracle resolution process; the trigger requires a formal US military invasion, not airstrikes or proxy action."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Al Jazeera Staff",
          "source_url": "https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/7/1/us-iran-negotiations-whats-the-latest",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-07-02T10:34:14+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market"
      },
      "story": "US-Iran indirect talks in Doha concluded with Qatar reporting positive progress, with Vice President JD Vance signaling no return to war unless necessary and a communication channel established.",
      "publisher": "Al Jazeera Staff",
      "published_at": "2026-07-01T08:38:25.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/7/1/us-iran-negotiations-whats-the-latest"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Polymarket's 13% on US invasion of Iran reflects markets treating Doha diplomacy as a de-escalation signal, though the tail risk is non-trivial."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Al Jazeera Staff: US-Iran negotiations: What’s the latest? | US-Israel war on Iran News",
      "url": "https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/7/1/us-iran-negotiations-whats-the-latest",
      "published_at": "2026-07-01T08:38:25.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-07-02T10:34:14+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/us-invades-iran-before-2027-polymarket-13-2026-07-01/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/us-invades-iran-before-2027-polymarket-13-2026-07-01.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}