{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026062803",
  "record_slug": "us-invades-iran-before-2027-polymarket-14-2026-06-28",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-06-28T06:14:45.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "US invasion of Iran before 2027 wavers at low conviction",
  "telemetry": "Polymarket 14%",
  "headline": "US invades Iran before 2027: Polymarket 14%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-WD982793G1",
  "target_event_slug": "will-the-us-invade-iran-before-2027",
  "event_question": "Will the United States invade Iran before 2027?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "polymarket",
    "platform_market_id": "0x5db999fad322cea2914535aae5517060c3f80ad6d8c0231cde2124a434d16846",
    "question_raw": "Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?",
    "current_price": 0.14,
    "volume_24h_usd": 38634.804211999995,
    "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
    "resolves_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Polymarket prices a US invasion of Iran before 2027 at 14%, resolving via uma_oracle.",
    "Active exchanges including Iranian drone strikes on Bahrain and Kuwait and US counter-strikes are consistent with elevated but minority invasion odds.",
    "The Iranian regime survival contract at 100% on Polymarket implies markets see escalation as limited, not regime-ending.",
    "Polymarket's 'UK, France, or Germany strike Iran by June 30' sits at 0%, confirming markets price this as a bilateral US-Iran conflict with no NATO expansion."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Elizabeth Melimopoulos",
          "source_url": "https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/6/28/iran-war-day-121-iran-attacks-bahrain-kuwait-as-us-strikes-near-hormuz",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-06-29T01:46:24+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market"
      },
      "story": "Iran attacked US bases in Bahrain and Kuwait while the US conducted strikes near the Strait of Hormuz, escalating the 121-day conflict.",
      "publisher": "Elizabeth Melimopoulos",
      "published_at": "2026-06-28T06:14:45.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/6/28/iran-war-day-121-iran-attacks-bahrain-kuwait-as-us-strikes-near-hormuz"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Polymarket contract resolves via uma_oracle; 14% reflects active hostilities priced as short of full ground-invasion threshold."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Elizabeth Melimopoulos: Iran war day 121: Iran attacks Bahrain, Kuwait as US strikes near Horm",
      "url": "https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/6/28/iran-war-day-121-iran-attacks-bahrain-kuwait-as-us-strikes-near-hormuz",
      "published_at": "2026-06-28T06:14:45.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-06-29T01:46:24+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/us-invades-iran-before-2027-polymarket-14-2026-06-28/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/us-invades-iran-before-2027-polymarket-14-2026-06-28.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}