{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026091206",
  "record_slug": "us-invades-iran-before-2027-polymarket-15-2026-09-12",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-09-12T10:28:12.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "US invasion of Iran before 2027 stays a long shot",
  "telemetry": "Polymarket 15%",
  "headline": "US invades Iran before 2027: Polymarket 15%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-09-16",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-WD982793G1",
  "target_event_slug": "will-the-us-invade-iran-before-2027",
  "event_question": "Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "polymarket",
    "platform_market_id": "0x5db999fad322cea2914535aae5517060c3f80ad6d8c0231cde2124a434d16846",
    "question_raw": "Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?",
    "current_price": 0.15,
    "volume_24h_usd": 337252.67978999997,
    "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
    "resolves_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Polymarket prices the US invading Iran before 2027 at 15%, a clear long-shot read despite escalating proxy conflict.",
    "Iraqi militia drone attacks on Saudi infrastructure, traced to Iran-backed groups, represent direct conflict escalation, yet the market prices direct US military action as unlikely.",
    "The 15% Polymarket price alongside the 21% Strait of Hormuz normalization read (CM-EVT-LCPV825X09) paints a consistent picture: markets expect prolonged disruption but not full US-Iran war.",
    "Polymarket resolves via UMA oracle; resolution would require a confirmed US ground, air, or naval invasion of Iranian territory, not proxy conflict or airstrikes on third-party proxies."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "ABC News",
          "source_url": "https://abcnews.com/International/wireStory/iraq-races-fallout-after-local-iran-backed-militias-136385727",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-09-12T11:56:19+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market"
      },
      "story": "Iran-backed Iraqi militias attacked the Saudi East-West pipeline, prompting Iraq to dismiss a military commander and scramble to contain regional fallout.",
      "publisher": "ABC News",
      "published_at": "2026-09-12T10:28:12.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://abcnews.com/International/wireStory/iraq-races-fallout-after-local-iran-backed-militias-136385727"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Polymarket at 15% treats direct US-Iran military conflict as a tail risk even as proxy escalation intensifies across the region."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "ABC News: Iraq races to contain fallout after local Iran-backed militias accused",
      "url": "https://abcnews.com/International/wireStory/iraq-races-fallout-after-local-iran-backed-militias-136385727",
      "published_at": "2026-09-12T10:28:12.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-09-12T11:56:19+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/us-invades-iran-before-2027-polymarket-15-2026-09-12/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/us-invades-iran-before-2027-polymarket-15-2026-09-12.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}