{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026061503",
  "record_slug": "us-invades-iran-before-2027-polymarket-19-2026-06-15",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-06-15T02:47:07.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "US invasion of Iran before 2027 absorbs ceasefire news at 19 percent",
  "telemetry": "Polymarket 19%",
  "headline": "US invades Iran before 2027: Polymarket 19%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-WD982793G1",
  "target_event_slug": "will-the-us-invade-iran-before-2027",
  "event_question": "Will the United States invade Iran before 2027?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "polymarket",
    "platform_market_id": "0x5db999fad322cea2914535aae5517060c3f80ad6d8c0231cde2124a434d16846",
    "question_raw": "Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?",
    "current_price": 0.19,
    "volume_24h_usd": 618551.2674090003,
    "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
    "resolves_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Polymarket prices a US invasion of Iran before 2027 at 19%, holding well above zero despite a announced permanent ceasefire.",
    "The peace deal announcement is directionally consistent with reduced invasion risk, yet nearly one-in-five odds remain, reflecting market skepticism about deal durability.",
    "The Pahlavi recognition contract on Kalshi sits at only 8%, suggesting markets also see regime change as an unlikely outcome of current diplomacy.",
    "Resolution is via UMA oracle; what constitutes an invasion under contract terms versus ongoing or resumed strikes would be the key settlement edge."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "AFP",
          "source_url": "https://www.newindianexpress.com/amp/story/world/2026/Jun/15/us-iran-peace-deal-announced-with-permanent-end-to-military-action-hormuz-strait-to-open-june-19",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-06-15T13:51:44+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market"
      },
      "story": "A US-Iran peace deal was announced with permanent end to military action and Hormuz reopening June 19.",
      "publisher": "AFP",
      "published_at": "2026-06-15T02:47:07.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.newindianexpress.com/amp/story/world/2026/Jun/15/us-iran-peace-deal-announced-with-permanent-end-to-military-action-hormuz-strait-to-open-june-19"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Polymarket at 19% on invasion shows the market is not fully pricing the ceasefire as durable, retaining meaningful tail risk through 2026."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "AFP: US-Iran peace deal announced with ‘permanent’ end to military action;",
      "url": "https://www.newindianexpress.com/amp/story/world/2026/Jun/15/us-iran-peace-deal-announced-with-permanent-end-to-military-action-hormuz-strait-to-open-june-19",
      "published_at": "2026-06-15T02:47:07.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-06-15T13:51:44+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/us-invades-iran-before-2027-polymarket-19-2026-06-15/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/us-invades-iran-before-2027-polymarket-19-2026-06-15.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}