{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026060301",
  "record_slug": "us-iran-nuclear-deal-before-2027-polymarket-63-2026-06-03",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-06-03T08:13:16.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027 leans likely in pricing",
  "telemetry": "Polymarket 63%",
  "headline": "US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027: Polymarket 63%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-VP51KKLQH2",
  "target_event_slug": "us-iran-nuclear-deal-before-2027",
  "event_question": "Will the US and Iran reach a nuclear deal before 2027?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "polymarket",
    "platform_market_id": "0x182390641d3b1b47cc64274b9da290efd04221c586651ba190880713da6347d9",
    "question_raw": "US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?",
    "current_price": 0.63,
    "volume_24h_usd": 28317.249848,
    "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
    "resolves_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Polymarket contract puts 63% on a US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027, despite stalled talks.",
    "House vote to curb Trump on Iran is symbolic; markets still assign majority odds to an eventual deal.",
    "Companion Polymarket contract on a US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30 sits at 20%, implying most deal probability is weighted to H2 2026.",
    "Resolves via uma_oracle based on a publicly announced US-Iran nuclear agreement before Jan 1, 2027."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "france24.com",
          "source_url": "https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20260603-drone-strikes-close-kuwait-airport-as-iran-and-us-clash-in-gulf",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-06-04T03:24:20+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market"
      },
      "story": "The US House passed a war-powers resolution to halt military action in Iran as peace talks stalled and ceasefire frayed.",
      "publisher": "france24.com",
      "published_at": "2026-06-03T08:13:16.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20260603-drone-strikes-close-kuwait-airport-as-iran-and-us-clash-in-gulf"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Polymarket prices 63% on a pre-2027 deal even as the House rebukes Trump and ceasefire talks stall."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "france24.com: US House votes to curb Trump on Iran war as talks stall",
      "url": "https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20260603-drone-strikes-close-kuwait-airport-as-iran-and-us-clash-in-gulf",
      "published_at": "2026-06-03T08:13:16.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-06-04T03:24:20+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/us-iran-nuclear-deal-before-2027-polymarket-63-2026-06-03/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/us-iran-nuclear-deal-before-2027-polymarket-63-2026-06-03.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}