{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026061001",
  "record_slug": "us-iran-nuclear-deal-by-jul-31-polymarket-45-2026-06-10",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-06-10T00:00:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31 wavers at coin-flip pricing",
  "telemetry": "Polymarket 45%",
  "headline": "US-Iran nuclear deal by Jul 31: Polymarket 45%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-Y2L01CWLW3",
  "target_event_slug": "us-iran-nuclear-deal-by-july-31",
  "event_question": "Will the US and Iran reach a nuclear deal by July 31?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "polymarket",
    "platform_market_id": "0xbdb44ce1624dbf80fe70a96e7cb027b854aa44c52cf87a6bd0bc9ea2c332c3dc",
    "question_raw": "US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31?",
    "current_price": 0.45,
    "volume_24h_usd": 6351.02358,
    "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
    "resolves_at": "2026-07-31T00:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Polymarket prices a US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31 at 45%, essentially a coin-flip despite active exchange of strikes.",
    "Active US-Iran military exchange is consistent with deal uncertainty, yet the market has not collapsed below 50%, suggesting traders still see a negotiated path.",
    "The near-term Polymarket contract on an Iran-Oman Strait of Hormuz agreement by June 15 sits at only 6%, signaling near-zero confidence in imminent de-escalation.",
    "Resolves via UMA oracle; any ceasefire announcement or formal deal document before July 31 would trigger resolution."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Patrick Sykes and Omar Tamo      Wed, June 10, 2026 at 12:25 p.m. GMT+2   4 min read",
          "source_url": "https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/us-iran-attack-other-over-072210630.html",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-06-10T11:36:47+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market"
      },
      "story": "US and Iran exchanged strikes overnight, jolting their two-month-old truce and endangering ongoing peace negotiations.",
      "publisher": "Patrick Sykes and Omar Tamo      Wed, June 10, 2026 at 12:25 p.m. GMT+2   4 min read",
      "published_at": "2026-06-10T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/us-iran-attack-other-over-072210630.html"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Polymarket prices the July 31 nuclear deal at 45%, holding well above zero despite active US-Iran strikes, while the June 15 Hormuz side-contract at 6% shows traders see little near-term off-ramp."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Patrick Sykes and Omar Tamo      Wed, June 10, 2026 at 12:25 p.m. GMT+2   4 min read: US, Iran Exchange Strikes, Putting Lasting Peace Deal at Risk",
      "url": "https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/us-iran-attack-other-over-072210630.html",
      "published_at": "2026-06-10T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-06-10T11:36:47+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/us-iran-nuclear-deal-by-jul-31-polymarket-45-2026-06-10/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/us-iran-nuclear-deal-by-jul-31-polymarket-45-2026-06-10.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}