{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026072508",
  "record_slug": "us-national-bitcoin-reserve-before-2027-polymarket-17-2026-07-25",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-07-25T00:00:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "National Bitcoin reserve by 2027 holds below 25 percent on Polymarket",
  "telemetry": "Polymarket 17%",
  "headline": "US national Bitcoin reserve before 2027: Polymarket 17%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-07-28",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-0F2G0B8X49",
  "target_event_slug": "us-national-bitcoin-reserve-before-2027",
  "event_question": "Will the United States establish a national Bitcoin reserve before 2027?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "polymarket",
    "platform_market_id": "0x953b1439569eef0a0e639566acd35d32ebadee8ab70dbb2f8e00bb936a277aa2",
    "question_raw": "US national Bitcoin reserve before 2027?",
    "current_price": 0.17,
    "volume_24h_usd": 0,
    "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
    "resolves_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Polymarket prices a 17% chance the United States establishes a national Bitcoin reserve before 2027.",
    "A $288 million government Bitcoin transfer to Coinbase spotlights uncertainty around reserve rules, but Polymarket at 17% shows the market still treats formal reserve establishment as unlikely before 2027.",
    "A companion Kalshi contract (CM-EVT-JQRXSG4ZX9) prices a Trump-created National Bitcoin Reserve in 2026 at 19%, consistent with the Polymarket read across venues.",
    "Resolution via Polymarket UMA oracle based on an official U.S. government announcement of a formal national Bitcoin reserve structure."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "bitrss.com",
          "source_url": "https://bitrss.com/us-government-sends-288m-to-coinbase-putting-bitcoin-reserve-rules-into-question-232030",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-07-25T09:42:27+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market"
      },
      "story": "The U.S. government transferred $288 million to Coinbase, raising questions about compliance with Bitcoin strategic reserve executive order rules.",
      "publisher": "bitrss.com",
      "published_at": "2026-07-25T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://bitrss.com/us-government-sends-288m-to-coinbase-putting-bitcoin-reserve-rules-into-question-232030"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Polymarket at 17% and Kalshi at 19% show cross-venue agreement that a formal U.S. Bitcoin reserve remains a minority-probability outcome before 2027."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "bitrss.com: US government sends $288M to Coinbase putting Bitcoin reserve rules in",
      "url": "https://bitrss.com/us-government-sends-288m-to-coinbase-putting-bitcoin-reserve-rules-into-question-232030",
      "published_at": "2026-07-25T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-07-25T09:42:27+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/us-national-bitcoin-reserve-before-2027-polymarket-17-2026-07-25/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/us-national-bitcoin-reserve-before-2027-polymarket-17-2026-07-25.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}