{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026070606",
  "record_slug": "us-negative-gdp-growth-in-2026-polymarket-8-2026-07-06",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-07-06T06:59:15.688Z",
  "semantic_title": "US negative GDP in 2026 remains a low-conviction fringe bet",
  "telemetry": "Polymarket 8%",
  "headline": "US negative GDP growth in 2026: Polymarket 8%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "lagging",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-07-21",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-36YHF72CQ8",
  "target_event_slug": "negative-gdp-growth-in-2026",
  "event_question": "Will the United States experience negative GDP growth in 2026?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "polymarket",
    "platform_market_id": "0xd8c1b0a73653b1fb4fb6e8d13d0063d25810870d7ddf83e61fffb4de4522edf1",
    "question_raw": "Negative GDP growth in 2026?",
    "current_price": 0.078,
    "volume_24h_usd": 81.588102,
    "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
    "resolution_source": "bea.gov",
    "resolves_at": "2027-01-29T00:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Polymarket prices only an 8% chance the United States records negative GDP growth in 2026.",
    "Despite June payrolls missing badly at 57,000, the market treats a full-year GDP contraction as a tail risk, not a base case.",
    "At 8%, the market is not fading the weak labor data outright, it is absorbing it while keeping recession pricing low.",
    "Resolves via the Bureau of Economic Analysis (bea.gov) full-year GDP report; negative growth requires two or more quarters of contraction to register annually."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "tradingeconomics.com",
          "source_url": "https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/news",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-07-06T12:00:14+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market"
      },
      "story": "Ongoing U.S. economic data including the weak June jobs report has kept recession fears in circulation.",
      "publisher": "tradingeconomics.com",
      "published_at": "2026-07-06T06:59:15.688Z",
      "source_url": "https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/news"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Polymarket at 8% shows the recession pricing remains firmly in tail territory despite the labor market deterioration evident in June's payroll print."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "tradingeconomics.com: United States News - Trading Economics",
      "url": "https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/news",
      "published_at": "2026-07-06T06:59:15.688Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-07-06T12:00:14+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/us-negative-gdp-growth-in-2026-polymarket-8-2026-07-06/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/us-negative-gdp-growth-in-2026-polymarket-8-2026-07-06.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}