{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026071403",
  "record_slug": "us-nonfarm-productivity-yoy-above-3-in-2026-kalshi-45-2026-07-14",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-07-14T13:13:22.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Nonfarm productivity above 3 percent in 2026 anchors near even odds",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi 45%",
  "headline": "US nonfarm productivity YoY above 3% in 2026: Kalshi 45%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-07-21",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-99JZRM47M6",
  "target_event_slug": "kxnfprod-27mar04",
  "event_question": "Will U.S. nonfarm productivity year-over-year growth exceed 3% in any quarter of 2026?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXNFPROD-27MAR04-T3",
    "question_raw": "Will U.S. nonfarm productivity YoY in any quarter for 2026 be above 3%?",
    "current_price": 0.45,
    "volume_24h_usd": 0,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation",
    "resolves_at": "2027-06-02T15:30:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi prices the US nonfarm productivity YoY above 3% in any 2026 quarter at 45%, near even odds.",
    "Cooling inflation reduces nominal output distortion, but does not directly confirm real productivity gains above 3%.",
    "The Fed holding rates steady despite softer CPI keeps financing costs elevated, which could compress capital investment and weigh on productivity.",
    "Resolves via Bureau of Labor Statistics Employment Situation releases; quarterly data cadence means multiple resolution windows remain in 2026."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "americanbanker.com",
          "source_url": "https://www.americanbanker.com/news/inflation-slowed-to-3-5-in-june-giving-fed-breathing-room",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-07-15T10:00:10+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "June CPI cooled sharply to 3.5% annual, with core inflation also slowing, giving the Fed breathing room without triggering imminent rate cuts.",
      "publisher": "americanbanker.com",
      "published_at": "2026-07-14T13:13:22.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.americanbanker.com/news/inflation-slowed-to-3-5-in-june-giving-fed-breathing-room"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi contract at 45% reflects genuine uncertainty; the CPI print is an indirect catalyst, not a direct productivity signal."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "americanbanker.com: Inflation slowed to 3.5% in June, giving Fed breathing room | American",
      "url": "https://www.americanbanker.com/news/inflation-slowed-to-3-5-in-june-giving-fed-breathing-room",
      "published_at": "2026-07-14T13:13:22.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-07-15T10:00:10+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/us-nonfarm-productivity-yoy-above-3-in-2026-kalshi-45-2026-07-14/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/us-nonfarm-productivity-yoy-above-3-in-2026-kalshi-45-2026-07-14.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}