{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026071003",
  "record_slug": "us-recession-by-end-2026-polymarket-11-2026-07-10",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-07-10T09:40:23.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Recession by year-end consensus holds at deep discount",
  "telemetry": "Polymarket 11%",
  "headline": "US recession by end 2026: Polymarket 11%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-943Z5Y3NP4",
  "target_event_slug": "us-recession-by-end-of-2026",
  "event_question": "Will the United States enter a recession by the end of 2026?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "polymarket",
    "platform_market_id": "0xfdc73f10edf0266756686f35b5712cffa828b0940fc015e0426c76c934c2105d",
    "question_raw": "US recession by end of 2026?",
    "current_price": 0.11,
    "volume_24h_usd": 723.955603,
    "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
    "resolves_at": "2027-01-31T00:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "The Polymarket contract prices only 11% probability on a US recession declared by end of 2026, resolved via UMA oracle.",
    "RSM's easing-supply-shock narrative aligns with the market's low recession pricing; the two readings reinforce rather than contradict each other.",
    "Kalshi's parallel contract (CM-EVT-L7017DJDX1) also sits at 11% via Bureau of Economic Analysis, showing cross-venue consensus with no gap to arbitrage.",
    "Resolves via UMA oracle using BEA GDP data; back-to-back negative real GDP quarters is the conventional trigger, making the Q3-Q4 2026 prints the key datapoints."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Joseph Brusuelas",
          "source_url": "https://realeconomy.rsmus.com/u-s-midyear-economic-update-supply-shocks-ease/",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-07-11T09:24:13+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market"
      },
      "story": "RSM's midyear update argued supply shocks are easing, consistent with a soft-landing scenario heading into the second half of 2026.",
      "publisher": "Joseph Brusuelas",
      "published_at": "2026-07-10T09:40:23.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://realeconomy.rsmus.com/u-s-midyear-economic-update-supply-shocks-ease/"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Polymarket and Kalshi both price 11% on recession this year, confirming cross-venue alignment; no venue gap exists at current marks."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Joseph Brusuelas: RSM’s U.S. midyear economic update: Supply shocks ease",
      "url": "https://realeconomy.rsmus.com/u-s-midyear-economic-update-supply-shocks-ease/",
      "published_at": "2026-07-10T09:40:23.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-07-11T09:24:13+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/us-recession-by-end-2026-polymarket-11-2026-07-10/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/us-recession-by-end-2026-polymarket-11-2026-07-10.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}