{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026081403",
  "record_slug": "us-recession-by-year-end-2026-polymarket-53-2026-08-14",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-08-14T15:41:15.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Recession by end of 2026 stays near 50% despite soft-landing talk",
  "telemetry": "Polymarket 53%",
  "headline": "US recession by year-end 2026: Polymarket 53%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-09-05",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-Z32WPK4K45",
  "target_event_slug": "us-economic-state-at-the-end-of-2026",
  "event_question": "Will the US economy be in recession at the end of 2026?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "polymarket",
    "platform_market_id": "0x50e3ee8f93a464d04ea2cea6efff45c902f43642aedbf43f7afdc899e10f71d8",
    "question_raw": "Will the US economy be in a soft landing at the end of 2026?",
    "current_price": 0.53,
    "volume_24h_usd": 0,
    "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
    "resolves_at": "2027-01-31T00:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "The Polymarket contract on a US recession by end of 2026 sits at 53%, keeping odds just above even despite the week's soft-landing narrative.",
    "Soft retail sales, cooling PPI, and subdued jobless claims are consistent with a soft landing, yet the contract above 50% shows the market has not embraced that outcome fully.",
    "Cross-market: Kalshi's separate US recession contract (Bureau of Economic Analysis resolution) prices the probability at just 4%, a stark gap versus Polymarket's 53%, likely reflecting differing resolution definitions and timelines.",
    "Resolves via Polymarket's UMA oracle based on official US GDP data."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "tradingkey.com",
          "source_url": "https://www.tradingkey.com/analysis/stocks/us-stocks/262108725-fed-september-hike-cools-soft-landing-sp500-7800-tradingkey",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-08-16T08:23:09+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market"
      },
      "story": "Fed September rate-hike expectations dropped to 30% as cooling inflation, jobs, and retail spending fueled soft-landing optimism, with the S&P 500 topping 7,800.",
      "publisher": "tradingkey.com",
      "published_at": "2026-08-14T15:41:15.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.tradingkey.com/analysis/stocks/us-stocks/262108725-fed-september-hike-cools-soft-landing-sp500-7800-tradingkey"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Polymarket at 53% and Kalshi at 4% on US recession reflect materially different resolution criteria; readers should weigh both venues with that definitional gap in mind."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "tradingkey.com: Fed September Rate Hike Expectations Drop to 30% as Inflation, Jobs, a",
      "url": "https://www.tradingkey.com/analysis/stocks/us-stocks/262108725-fed-september-hike-cools-soft-landing-sp500-7800-tradingkey",
      "published_at": "2026-08-14T15:41:15.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-08-16T08:23:09+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/us-recession-by-year-end-2026-polymarket-53-2026-08-14/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/us-recession-by-year-end-2026-polymarket-53-2026-08-14.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}