{
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  "record_id": "CMSIG2026101304",
  "record_slug": "us-recession-in-2026-kalshi-3-2026-10-13",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-10-13T00:00:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "US recession odds for 2026 stay near long-shot territory",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi 3%",
  "headline": "US recession in 2026: Kalshi 3%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-10-21",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-L7017DJDX1",
  "target_event_slug": "kxrecssnber-26",
  "event_question": "Will the United States enter a recession this year?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXRECSSNBER-26",
    "question_raw": "Will there be a recession in 2026?",
    "current_price": 0.03,
    "volume_24h_usd": 141.57,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "Bureau of Economic Analysis",
    "resolves_at": "2027-01-31T15:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi places only 3% odds on the United States entering a recession in 2026, resolving via the Bureau of Economic Analysis.",
    "The IMF's warning about elevated oil prices and AI-concentration risk is not moving the recession needle, as the market holds firmly near long-shot pricing.",
    "A companion Kalshi contract on the state of the economy at end-2026 sits at 29%, a broader negative-outcome measure that also prices recession as unlikely but not negligible.",
    "Resolution via the Bureau of Economic Analysis requires an official GDP contraction determination, setting a high bar for the 3% tail to resolve yes."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Nicholas Dale Leal",
          "source_url": "https://english.elpais.com/economy-and-business/2026-10-13/imf-forecasts-us-inflation-will-pick-up-in-2026-before-easing-next-year.html",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-10-13T15:32:34+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "The IMF forecasts U.S. inflation will pick up in 2026 before easing next year, with growth increasingly reliant on AI and oil prices remaining elevated.",
      "publisher": "Nicholas Dale Leal",
      "published_at": "2026-10-13T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://english.elpais.com/economy-and-business/2026-10-13/imf-forecasts-us-inflation-will-pick-up-in-2026-before-easing-next-year.html"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi prices U.S. recession odds at 3% for 2026, with the market largely dismissing IMF downside warnings about oil and AI slowdown risk."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Nicholas Dale Leal: IMF forecasts US inflation will pick up in 2026 before easing next yea",
      "url": "https://english.elpais.com/economy-and-business/2026-10-13/imf-forecasts-us-inflation-will-pick-up-in-2026-before-easing-next-year.html",
      "published_at": "2026-10-13T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-10-13T15:32:34+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/us-recession-in-2026-kalshi-3-2026-10-13/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/us-recession-in-2026-kalshi-3-2026-10-13.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}