{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026072405",
  "record_slug": "us-recognizes-pahlavi-as-iran-leader-by-2026-kalshi-6-2026-07-24",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-07-24T00:00:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "US recognizing Reza Pahlavi as Iran leader stays a long shot",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi 6%",
  "headline": "US recognizes Pahlavi as Iran leader by 2026: Kalshi 6%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-07-28",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-SY50TZ6672",
  "target_event_slug": "kxrecogpersoniran-26",
  "event_question": "Will the United States recognize Reza Pahlavi as the leader of Iran by 2026?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXRECOGPERSONIRAN-26",
    "question_raw": "Will the United States recognize Reza Pahlavi as the leader of Iran in 2026?",
    "current_price": 0.065,
    "volume_24h_usd": 249.64,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "ABC",
    "resolves_at": "2027-01-01T15:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi prices only 6% on the U.S. recognizing Reza Pahlavi as Iran's leader by end of 2026.",
    "Despite escalating U.S. strikes and Trump threatening a massive attack, markets see regime-change recognition as a remote outcome this year.",
    "A companion Polymarket contract puts the Iranian regime's fall before 2027 at 9%, and Kalshi prices a U.S. embassy reopening in Iran at just 7%, consistent with a low-probability regime-change scenario.",
    "Resolution adjudicated by ABC News reporting on an official U.S. government recognition act."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "nbcnews.com",
          "source_url": "https://www.nbcnews.com/world/iran/us-iran-strikes-trump-massive-attack-war-hormuz-red-sea-oil-rcna589016",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-07-25T09:42:27+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "The U.S. launched new strikes on Iran and President Donald Trump threatened a massive attack as the conflict widened, raising questions about U.S. end-state goals.",
      "publisher": "nbcnews.com",
      "published_at": "2026-07-24T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.nbcnews.com/world/iran/us-iran-strikes-trump-massive-attack-war-hormuz-red-sea-oil-rcna589016"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi at 6% treats U.S. recognition of a replacement Iranian government as a deep long shot even as military strikes escalate."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "nbcnews.com: U.S. launches new Iran strikes, Trump threatens ‘massive attack’ as wa",
      "url": "https://www.nbcnews.com/world/iran/us-iran-strikes-trump-massive-attack-war-hormuz-red-sea-oil-rcna589016",
      "published_at": "2026-07-24T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-07-25T09:42:27+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/us-recognizes-pahlavi-as-iran-leader-by-2026-kalshi-6-2026-07-24/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/us-recognizes-pahlavi-as-iran-leader-by-2026-kalshi-6-2026-07-24.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}