{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026110908",
  "record_slug": "us-recognizes-pahlavi-as-iran-leader-kalshi-4-2026-11-09",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-11-09T01:42:17.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Reza Pahlavi recognized as Iran leader by 2026 stays near zero",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi 4%",
  "headline": "US recognizes Pahlavi as Iran leader: Kalshi 4%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-11-10",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-SY50TZ6672",
  "target_event_slug": "kxrecogpersoniran-26",
  "event_question": "Will the United States recognize Reza Pahlavi as the leader of Iran by 2026?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXRECOGPERSONIRAN-26",
    "question_raw": "Will the United States recognize Reza Pahlavi as the leader of Iran in 2026?",
    "current_price": 0.041,
    "volume_24h_usd": 29.18,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "ABC",
    "resolves_at": "2027-01-01T15:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "The Kalshi contract prices only a 4% chance the US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as Iran's leader before the end of 2026, with volume up 3,247% day over day.",
    "The massive volume surge signals the claim is drawing significant fresh attention, even as the probability remains very low.",
    "Trump's diplomatic engagement with Qatar on Iran and signaling of openness to a deal are inconsistent with a regime-change recognition path.",
    "Resolution via ABC News reporting; the volume spike likely reflects speculative interest rather than any credible intelligence of a policy shift."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Yahoo",
          "source_url": "https://www.yahoo.com/news/politics/articles/trump-meet-qatars-prime-minister-014217445.html",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-11-09T07:47:40+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "Trump met Qatar's prime minister to advance Iran diplomacy as efforts to end the Iran war face significant hurdles.",
      "publisher": "Yahoo",
      "published_at": "2026-11-09T01:42:17.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.yahoo.com/news/politics/articles/trump-meet-qatars-prime-minister-014217445.html"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi contract resolves via ABC News; the volume surge is a notable signal but the 4% pricing firmly discounts regime-change recognition in 2026."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Yahoo: Trump to meet Qatar's prime minister as Iran diplomacy faces hurdles",
      "url": "https://www.yahoo.com/news/politics/articles/trump-meet-qatars-prime-minister-014217445.html",
      "published_at": "2026-11-09T01:42:17.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-11-09T07:47:40+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/us-recognizes-pahlavi-as-iran-leader-kalshi-4-2026-11-09/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/us-recognizes-pahlavi-as-iran-leader-kalshi-4-2026-11-09.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}