{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026100404",
  "record_slug": "us-recognizes-pahlavi-as-iran-leader-polymarket-4-2026-10-04",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-10-04T00:00:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "US recognition of Reza Pahlavi as Iran leader stays a long shot",
  "telemetry": "Polymarket 4%",
  "headline": "US recognizes Pahlavi as Iran leader: Polymarket 4%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-10-04",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-0SWQB28081",
  "target_event_slug": "us-recognizes-reza-pahlavi-as-leader-of-iran-in2026",
  "event_question": "Will the US recognize Reza Pahlavi as the leader of Iran by 2026?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "polymarket",
    "platform_market_id": "0x0ac2141f45ac7ecb8477c64207db37f8f8efce800cbf705366771902e796e92a",
    "question_raw": "US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026?",
    "current_price": 0.037,
    "volume_24h_usd": 31.35,
    "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
    "resolves_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Polymarket prices only 4% on the US recognizing Reza Pahlavi as Iran's leader before year-end, keeping regime-change recognition firmly in long-shot territory.",
    "Despite confirmed US strikes on dozens of Iranian targets and a US military buildup, prediction markets are not pricing in a near-term political resolution favorable to the exile leadership.",
    "The Strait of Hormuz reopening-by-year-end Polymarket contract sits at 19%, offering a related read on how far markets believe the conflict will be resolved in 2026.",
    "Resolution via UMA oracle requires an official US government statement of recognition, a high legal bar that explains the compressed pricing even amid active hostilities."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Peter Martin, Patrick Sykes, Fiona Macdonald, Samy Adghirni",
          "source_url": "https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2026/10/04/world/pressure-iran-trump-us-military/",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-10-04T07:47:36+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market"
      },
      "story": "As the US conducts heavy strikes on Iranian targets after Iranian forces attacked US troops in Jordan, Trump is weighing next steps on Iran amid a growing military buildup.",
      "publisher": "Peter Martin, Patrick Sykes, Fiona Macdonald, Samy Adghirni",
      "published_at": "2026-10-04T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2026/10/04/world/pressure-iran-trump-us-military/"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Polymarket covers both the Pahlavi recognition question at 4% and the Hormuz normalization question at 19%; the gap between them suggests markets see some commercial resolution as more likely than a political one."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Peter Martin, Patrick Sykes, Fiona Macdonald, Samy Adghirni: Pressure builds on Iran as Trump boosts U.S. military presence - The J",
      "url": "https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2026/10/04/world/pressure-iran-trump-us-military/",
      "published_at": "2026-10-04T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-10-04T07:47:36+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/us-recognizes-pahlavi-as-iran-leader-polymarket-4-2026-10-04/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/us-recognizes-pahlavi-as-iran-leader-polymarket-4-2026-10-04.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}