{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026070905",
  "record_slug": "us-recognizes-reza-pahlavi-as-iran-leader-by-2026-kalshi-7-2026-07-09",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-07-09T00:00:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Pahlavi recognition by US end-2026 holds at deep discount",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi 7%",
  "headline": "US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as Iran leader by 2026: Kalshi 7%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-SY50TZ6672",
  "target_event_slug": "kxrecogpersoniran-26",
  "event_question": "Will the United States recognize Reza Pahlavi as the leader of Iran by 2026?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXRECOGPERSONIRAN-26",
    "question_raw": "Will the United States recognize Reza Pahlavi as the leader of Iran in 2026?",
    "current_price": 0.07,
    "volume_24h_usd": 8.72,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "ABC",
    "resolves_at": "2027-01-01T15:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi prices only 7% on the US recognizing Reza Pahlavi as Iran's leader by end-2026, a deep discount despite active military escalation.",
    "Escalating US strikes and Iranian retaliation against Gulf states are consistent with regime pressure, but markets see a formal recognition outcome as highly unlikely this year.",
    "A companion Kalshi contract (CM-EVT-34SYT4T2T1) prices just 5% on the US reopening its embassy in Iran, confirming the market sees no near-term diplomatic normalization either direction.",
    "Resolves via ABC News determination of official US recognition; active conflict makes formal recognition mechanics highly uncertain for the 2026 window."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "By                  \n\nThe Associated Press",
          "source_url": "https://www.npr.org/2026/07/09/g-s1-132670/us-iran-strikes",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-07-09T10:56:21+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "The US launched new airstrikes on Iran and Tehran responded by targeting Gulf Arab states, threatening an interim deal intended to end the war.",
      "publisher": "By                  \n\nThe Associated Press",
      "published_at": "2026-07-09T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.npr.org/2026/07/09/g-s1-132670/us-iran-strikes"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi contract resolving via ABC; low probability consistent with both escalation scenario and lack of a negotiated regime-change pathway in current news flow."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "By                  \n\nThe Associated Press: U.S. launches new airstrikes on Iran and Tehran fires back at Gulf Ara",
      "url": "https://www.npr.org/2026/07/09/g-s1-132670/us-iran-strikes",
      "published_at": "2026-07-09T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-07-09T10:56:21+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/us-recognizes-reza-pahlavi-as-iran-leader-by-2026-kalshi-7-2026-07-09/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/us-recognizes-reza-pahlavi-as-iran-leader-by-2026-kalshi-7-2026-07-09.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}