{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026071506",
  "record_slug": "us-recognizes-reza-pahlavi-as-iran-leader-by-2026-kalshi-8-2026-07-15",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-07-15T02:46:23.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Reza Pahlavi recognition consensus stays depressed amid active Iran war",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi 8%",
  "headline": "US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as Iran leader by 2026: Kalshi 8%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-07-21",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-SY50TZ6672",
  "target_event_slug": "kxrecogpersoniran-26",
  "event_question": "Will the United States recognize Reza Pahlavi as the leader of Iran by 2026?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXRECOGPERSONIRAN-26",
    "question_raw": "Will the United States recognize Reza Pahlavi as the leader of Iran in 2026?",
    "current_price": 0.077,
    "volume_24h_usd": 7.79,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "ABC",
    "resolves_at": "2027-01-01T15:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi prices US recognition of Reza Pahlavi as Iran's leader by 2026 at 8%, a low but non-trivial tail.",
    "Active US strikes on Iran focus on military and energy targets, not political transition, making formal recognition unlikely in the near term.",
    "Companion Polymarket contract CM-EVT-0SWQB28081 prices the same scenario at 4%, a 4-point gap across venues worth monitoring as a cross-venue spread.",
    "Resolves via ABC; recognition would require an explicit US government declaration, a high procedural bar."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Barak Ravid",
          "source_url": "https://www.axios.com/2026/07/15/trump-situation-room-iran-bombing",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-07-15T10:00:10+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "Trump held a Situation Room meeting on massive new Iran strikes, with the US escalating military action rather than pursuing regime-change recognition.",
      "publisher": "Barak Ravid",
      "published_at": "2026-07-15T02:46:23.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.axios.com/2026/07/15/trump-situation-room-iran-bombing"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi at 8% versus Polymarket at 4% on the same scenario suggests modest cross-venue disagreement on a low-probability tail event."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Barak Ravid: Trump held Situation Room meeting on massive new Iran strikes",
      "url": "https://www.axios.com/2026/07/15/trump-situation-room-iran-bombing",
      "published_at": "2026-07-15T02:46:23.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-07-15T10:00:10+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/us-recognizes-reza-pahlavi-as-iran-leader-by-2026-kalshi-8-2026-07-15/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/us-recognizes-reza-pahlavi-as-iran-leader-by-2026-kalshi-8-2026-07-15.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}