{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026110107",
  "record_slug": "us-recognizes-reza-pahlavi-as-iran-leader-kalshi-6-2026-11-01",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-11-01T00:00:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "US recognition of Reza Pahlavi stays a long shot",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi 6%",
  "headline": "US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as Iran leader: Kalshi 6%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-11-04",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-SY50TZ6672",
  "target_event_slug": "kxrecogpersoniran-26",
  "event_question": "Will the United States recognize Reza Pahlavi as the leader of Iran by 2026?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXRECOGPERSONIRAN-26",
    "question_raw": "Will the United States recognize Reza Pahlavi as the leader of Iran in 2026?",
    "current_price": 0.062,
    "volume_24h_usd": 80.07,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "ABC",
    "resolves_at": "2027-01-01T15:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "The Kalshi prediction market puts just 6% odds on the US recognizing Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran by 2026.",
    "Diplomatic exploration between Tehran and Washington is ongoing, but the market sees near-zero probability of a regime-change-style outcome this year.",
    "The Polymarket contract on Hormuz traffic returning to normal by December 31 sits at 12%, consistent with the low probability of a comprehensive deal.",
    "The US embassy reopening in Iran contract on Kalshi (CM-EVT-34SYT4T2T1) is at 3%, reinforcing that markets see diplomacy as exploratory, not conclusive."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Maziar Motamedi",
          "source_url": "https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/11/1/iran-and-us-explore-diplomacy-amid-rising-threats-of-war",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-11-01T14:42:33+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "Iran and the US are exploring diplomacy amid rising threats of war, with Tehran saying it could reopen the Strait of Hormuz if conditions are met.",
      "publisher": "Maziar Motamedi",
      "published_at": "2026-11-01T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/11/1/iran-and-us-explore-diplomacy-amid-rising-threats-of-war"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "The Kalshi contract resolves via ABC News reporting; the 6% reading is consistent across the Iran diplomatic event cluster, with no contract pricing a near-term breakthrough above low single digits."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Maziar Motamedi: Iran and US explore diplomacy amid rising threats of war | US-Israel w",
      "url": "https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/11/1/iran-and-us-explore-diplomacy-amid-rising-threats-of-war",
      "published_at": "2026-11-01T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-11-01T14:42:33+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/us-recognizes-reza-pahlavi-as-iran-leader-kalshi-6-2026-11-01/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/us-recognizes-reza-pahlavi-as-iran-leader-kalshi-6-2026-11-01.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}