{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026071806",
  "record_slug": "us-recognizes-reza-pahlavi-as-iran-leader-kalshi-7-2026-07-18",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-07-18T00:00:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Reza Pahlavi recognition pricing holds deep discount amid strikes",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi 7%",
  "headline": "US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as Iran leader: Kalshi 7%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-07-21",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-SY50TZ6672",
  "target_event_slug": "kxrecogpersoniran-26",
  "event_question": "Will the United States recognize Reza Pahlavi as the leader of Iran by 2026?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXRECOGPERSONIRAN-26",
    "question_raw": "Will the United States recognize Reza Pahlavi as the leader of Iran in 2026?",
    "current_price": 0.067,
    "volume_24h_usd": 14.44,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "ABC",
    "resolves_at": "2027-01-01T15:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi prices only 7% on the US formally recognizing Reza Pahlavi as Iran's leader in 2026, despite active US military engagement with Iranian forces.",
    "Escalating airstrikes and troop deaths have not moved market pricing toward regime-change scenarios; the market treats recognition as a low-probability political step.",
    "A companion Kalshi contract (CM-EVT-34SYT4T2T1) prices just 7% on the US reopening its embassy in Iran, confirming markets see normalization as equally remote.",
    "Resolution is via ABC News reporting on formal US government recognition; military strikes alone would not trigger resolution without a diplomatic declaration."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "abc.net.au",
          "source_url": "https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-07-19/us-says-two-military-personnel-killed-in-jordan/106932528",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-07-19T09:48:56+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "US forces launched new airstrikes on Iran to punish IRGC units after two US troops were killed in a Jordan base attack, with the conflict now described as lurching toward all-out war.",
      "publisher": "abc.net.au",
      "published_at": "2026-07-18T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-07-19/us-says-two-military-personnel-killed-in-jordan/106932528"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi contract resolved via ABC; at 7%, pricing is consistent with deep skepticism about regime-change political outcomes despite military escalation."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "abc.net.au: US military launches new air strikes to 'swiftly punish' Iran for deat",
      "url": "https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-07-19/us-says-two-military-personnel-killed-in-jordan/106932528",
      "published_at": "2026-07-18T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-07-19T09:48:56+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/us-recognizes-reza-pahlavi-as-iran-leader-kalshi-7-2026-07-18/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/us-recognizes-reza-pahlavi-as-iran-leader-kalshi-7-2026-07-18.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}