{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026082706",
  "record_slug": "us-recognizes-reza-pahlavi-as-iran-leader-kalshi-7-2026-08-27",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-08-27T00:00:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "US recognition of Reza Pahlavi as Iran leader stays a long shot",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi 7%",
  "headline": "US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as Iran leader: Kalshi 7%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-09-05",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-SY50TZ6672",
  "target_event_slug": "kxrecogpersoniran-26",
  "event_question": "Will the United States recognize Reza Pahlavi as the leader of Iran by 2026?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXRECOGPERSONIRAN-26",
    "question_raw": "Will the United States recognize Reza Pahlavi as the leader of Iran in 2026?",
    "current_price": 0.072,
    "volume_24h_usd": 513.1,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "ABC",
    "resolves_at": "2027-01-01T15:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi puts 7% odds on the US recognizing Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran by 2026, resolved via ABC News.",
    "The stalemate framing, Iran betting time is on its side and Trump pivoting to sanctions, is consistent with the market treating regime-change recognition as a remote outcome.",
    "A companion Polymarket contract on the same question prices just 5%, with the two-point spread between venues reflecting minor resolution or framing differences.",
    "Resolution requires an official US government declaration, not battlefield gains, a high political bar that keeps both contracts in single digits."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Samia Nakhoul",
          "source_url": "https://www.reuters.com/world/china/after-six-months-iran-war-has-reached-its-endgame-costly-stalemate-2026-08-27/",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-08-28T19:51:53+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "Six months into the US-Iran war, Reuters reports a costly stalemate with Trump shifting from airstrikes to economic warfare and a blockade strategy.",
      "publisher": "Samia Nakhoul",
      "published_at": "2026-08-27T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.reuters.com/world/china/after-six-months-iran-war-has-reached-its-endgame-costly-stalemate-2026-08-27/"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi and Polymarket converge near 5-7% on Pahlavi recognition, aligning with the stalemate narrative and no visible path to regime change by year-end."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Samia Nakhoul: After six months, the Iran war has reached its endgame, a costly stal",
      "url": "https://www.reuters.com/world/china/after-six-months-iran-war-has-reached-its-endgame-costly-stalemate-2026-08-27/",
      "published_at": "2026-08-27T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-08-28T19:51:53+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/us-recognizes-reza-pahlavi-as-iran-leader-kalshi-7-2026-08-27/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/us-recognizes-reza-pahlavi-as-iran-leader-kalshi-7-2026-08-27.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}