{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026082205",
  "record_slug": "us-recognizes-russia-over-ukraine-by-2027-polymarket-5-2026-08-22",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-08-22T00:00:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "US recognizing Russian sovereignty over Ukraine stays a long shot",
  "telemetry": "Polymarket 5%",
  "headline": "US recognizes Russia over Ukraine by 2027: Polymarket 5%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-09-05",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-T1H8NR4G99",
  "target_event_slug": "us-recognizes-russian-sovereignty-over-ukraine-before-2027",
  "event_question": "Will the US recognize Russian sovereignty over Ukraine before 2027?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "polymarket",
    "platform_market_id": "0x4f192d856071c86b7a480c5b0bdd38318ec7be0bf2430784acacbe77bf12fcc9",
    "question_raw": "US recognizes Russian sovereignty over Ukraine before 2027?",
    "current_price": 0.05,
    "volume_24h_usd": 161.0922,
    "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
    "resolves_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Polymarket puts 5% on the US recognizing Russian sovereignty over Ukraine before 2027; trading volume rose 4,033% day over day, a 41.3x surge.",
    "Ongoing Russian strikes are drawing fresh attention to the contract, as evidenced by the volume spike, but the headline probability remains a long shot.",
    "The volume surge signals the news is generating market activity without materially shifting the consensus; price and direction remain unchanged.",
    "Companion Polymarket contract on Zelenskyy departing by end of 2026 (CM-EVT-355Q75KD17) sits at 9%, reinforcing the view that markets see the war continuing under current leadership."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "apnews.com",
          "source_url": "https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-war-kyiv-missiles-drones-5e6f60963f2662907441e95c635470c4",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-08-24T08:42:17+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market"
      },
      "story": "Russian drone and missile strikes killed at least seven people in Ukraine the day after a deadly shopping mall drone strike.",
      "publisher": "apnews.com",
      "published_at": "2026-08-22T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-war-kyiv-missiles-drones-5e6f60963f2662907441e95c635470c4"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Polymarket contract resolves via UMA oracle; the 41x volume surge is the signal, not a price move."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "apnews.com: Russian attacks kill 2 in Ukraine a day after shopping mall drone stri",
      "url": "https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-war-kyiv-missiles-drones-5e6f60963f2662907441e95c635470c4",
      "published_at": "2026-08-22T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-08-24T08:42:17+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/us-recognizes-russia-over-ukraine-by-2027-polymarket-5-2026-08-22/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/us-recognizes-russia-over-ukraine-by-2027-polymarket-5-2026-08-22.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}